The Washington Post writes,
Most [of the Paris terrorists] had already been flagged as potential security threats. But so had tens of thousands of others — 20,000 in France alone — and the plotters were careful not to stand out or give law enforcement an excuse to arrest them.
I have said before that when a terrorist watchlist gets large enough, it becomes like an odometer that rolls back to zero. If you’re “watching” 20,000 people, you are not really watching anyone. And I think that it is reasonable to suppose that adding Syrian refugees will eventually add to the number of people on a watch list.
One argument that I have seen for allowing Syrian refugees runs as follows: it is easier to enter this country as a tourist than a refugee, therefore allowing refugees does not really add to the threat of terrorism. If you have made such an argument, do you really believe it? Think through your other implicit beliefs.
1. There must not be much point in vetting Syrian refugees to any greater extent than we vet tourists. In that case, “vetting” is pretty much an empty theatrical gesture.
2. There may not be much point in having a Department of Homeland Security. After all, if terrorist attacks are not really preventable, then why are we spending billions of dollars supposedly trying to prevent them?
3. Addimg Syrian refugees does not add to the risk of an intelligence failure, due to resources being diverted to screen refugees or to the refugee population making it easier for terrorists to blend in. This is because (a) there is no such thing as an intelligence failure. Or (b) dealing with Syrian refugees imposes zero marginal costs of intelligence resources.
It may be perfectly legitimate to believe these things, although I do not myself believe them. But if there is a way to believe that adding Syrian refugees adds no risk without believing such things, then I cannot see it.
I think a more reasonable statement in defense of taking in refugees would be that although it adds to the risk of a terrorist attack, the additional risk is small relative to the benefits of allowing refugees.