Category Archives: Scott Sumner is Coherent

The Bretton Woods Consensual Hallucination

Scott Sumner writes, You might think it’s no big deal that exchange rates becomes more volatile after the end of Bretton Woods—after all, Bretton Woods was a fixed exchange rate regime. Actually, it’s a huge deal, as you’d expect the … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Economics, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 9 Comments

Sales of homes to foreign buyers

CNN Money reports, The National Association of Realtors released a report Tuesday that said foreign buyers and recent immigrants spent an estimated $153 billion on American properties in the year ending March 2017. That was a 49% increase over the … Continue reading

Posted in Housing and housing finance, Scott Sumner is Coherent, trade and immigration | 17 Comments

Scott Sumner’s macroeconomics: my thoughts

He writes, I’ll use “(e)” to denote a (market) expected value. NGDP(e) is the single most important variable in macro; it should be the centerpiece of modern macro. How can we work with a central concept that is purely mental? … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Economics, PSST and Macro, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 13 Comments

The State of the Housing Market

Scott Sumner writes, It looks like the supply side is being hit by a triple whammy of adverse supply shocks These are problems with funding, land and labor supply. I think that the problem boils down to land in a … Continue reading

Posted in Housing and housing finance, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 35 Comments

Kevin Grier rants

He writes, This Fed worship is more religious than scientific. The past 10 years should be enough to convince anyone with an open mind that the Fed’s power over the economy is quite limited and tenuous. More at the link. … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Economics, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 10 Comments

The Greenspan Fed

Reviewing Sebastian Mallaby’s biography of Alan Greenspan, Randall Kroszner writes, The Fed has limited instruments at its disposal—primarily its control over short-term interest rates—and trying to use this tool for “bubble bursting” while still addressing the Fed’s traditional mandates for … Continue reading

Posted in PSST and Macro, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 5 Comments

Economic Data in 1946

Scott Sumner writes, One commenter pointed out that RGDP fell by over 12% between 1945 and 1946, and that lots of women left the labor force after WWII. So does a shrinking labor force explain the disconnect between unemployment and … Continue reading

Posted in links to my essays, PSST and Macro, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 4 Comments

Neoliberalism vs. Socialism

Scott Sumner is frustrated. The is no plausible argument that Hong Kong’s success is in any way a success story for statism, and there is no plausible argument that Greece’s failure has anything to do with neoliberalism. To suggest otherwise … Continue reading

Posted in institutional economics, Libertarian Thought, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 37 Comments

Back to the 1960s

Olivier Blanchard writes, The IS relation remains the key to understanding short-run movements in output. In the short run, the demand for goods determines the level of output. A desire by people to save more leads to a decrease in … Continue reading

Posted in books and book reviews, PSST and Macro, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 1 Comment

Secular Dis-Stagnation

Check out this chart, which was linked to by one of Scott Sumner’s commenters. It shows a large secular increase in the spread between risky corporate bonds and 10-year Treasuries. To me, this chart provides evidence of the bogosity of … Continue reading

Posted in PSST and Macro, Scott Sumner is Coherent | 3 Comments