Category Archives: statistical methods

Estimating consumers’ surplus from information goods

Erik Brynjolfsson, Avi Gannamaneni, and Felix Eggers have a paper on the topic. From the abstract: We explore the potential of massive online choice experiments to measure consumers’ willingness to accept compensation for losing access to various digital goods and … Continue reading

Posted in business economics, Information Goods, statistical methods, Tyler Cowen is my Favorite Blogger | 9 Comments

Inter-generational mean reversion

Tyler Cowen, among many others, is intrigued by a study by Raj Chetty and others showing downward mobility of black males. My view, which I came to in the process of reading Gregory Clark’s study of long-term heritability of income, … Continue reading

Posted in income distribution-wealth-poverty, statistical methods | 21 Comments

Clarification: the null hypothesis

A reader asked for this. The term “null hypothesis” comes from statistics. The word “null” means “no effect” and the null hypothesis is that an intervention has no effect on the outcome. If you were testing the effectiveness of a … Continue reading

Posted in statistical methods | 25 Comments

Is personality psychology just a baloney sandwich?

I say no, although it is not like physics. We are talking about modest correlations, not strict laws. What made the marshmallow test famous was the follow-up work which suggested that a child’s ability to defer gratification on the test … Continue reading

Posted in behavioral economics, statistical methods | 4 Comments

Me vs. Nassim Taleb

As Tyler Cowen noted, Taleb takes on some of his reviewers. In a comment, I took on Taleb when he wrote the variance within forecasters is smaller than that between forecasts and out of sample realizations. He saw it as … Continue reading

Posted in books and book reviews, statistical methods, Tyler Cowen is my Favorite Blogger | 15 Comments

Jason Collins on Grit

He writes, I will say that Duckworth appears to be one of the most open recipients of criticism in academia that I have come across. She readily concedes good arguments, and appears caught between her knowledge of the limitations of … Continue reading

Posted in statistical methods | 2 Comments

Uninformative Regression

Pierre Lemieux writes, simple regression analysis confirms the absence of statistical correlation between country size and economic freedom. Simple regression analysis is not a good choice with skewed data, such as the population size of different countries. What the regression … Continue reading

Posted in links to my essays, statistical methods | 3 Comments

Unhinged Nation Watch

John Cochrane reproduces a graph showing a post-election surge in economic confidence among Republicans and a corresponding decline in economic confidence among Democrats. As John points out, this raises doubts about the meaning of surveys of economic confidence.

Posted in Politics, statistical methods | 16 Comments

What Drives the Result?

Douglas L. Campbell writes, the Glick and Rose estimation strategy implicitly assumes that the end of the cold war had no impact on trade between the East and the West. Several of the Euro countries today, such as the former … Continue reading

Posted in Mark Thoma is Indispensable, statistical methods | 1 Comment

Russ Roberts on Economic Methods

He writes, fundamentals like income or even changes in income over time are somewhat measurable with some precision, [but] we are notoriously unreliable at the things the world really cares about and asks of our profession: why did income for … Continue reading

Posted in Economic education and methods, statistical methods, Tyler Cowen is my Favorite Blogger | 2 Comments