Mind the Gap?

Larry Kotlikoff writes,

The fiscal gap is a comprehensive measure of our government’s indebtedness. It is defined as the present value of all projected future expenditures, including servicing outstanding official federal debt, less the present value of all projected future tax and other receipts, including income accruing from the government’s current ownership of financial assets.

He wants to see CBO, OMB, and GAO all report on this measure.

I think I would prefer to see accrual accounting. That is, report the increase in government obligations each year. But the fiscal gap idea might be helpful.

The Mortgage Interest Deduction

(1) If I buy a property and rent it out, then my income is equal to the rent that I get, minus expenses, including interest payments on a mortgage. Thus, I get to deduct mortgage interest.

(2) If homeowners could not deduct mortgage interest, then landlords would have an advantage. That is, the landlord could deduct mortgage interest, but the homeowner could not.

(3) As a homeowner, I do not count as income the “rent” that I earn on the house. This gives me an advantage over a landlord.

(4) Also, I do not count as income a capital gain from selling the house. This is another advantage over a landlord.

One can argue that the main distortions in the tax code are (3) and (4), rather than the mortgage interest deduction. If you took away (3) and (4), then I think one could argue that you want to keep the mortgage interest deduction.

Of course, the main reason we have the mortgage interest deduction is that the mortgage industry loves it. Yes, it is popular with people who currently use the deduction. But even if you “grandfathered” the deduction for everyone currently using it, you could never get a repeal past the housing lobby.

Taking on the Housing Lobby

Congressman Jeb Hensarling did not get the memo. He said,

Will our generation perpetuate a system that demands “more house” today only to ensure that our children are confined to “less house” tomorrow? Today’s system of boom, bust, and bailout is retarding economic growth and helping fuel what all acknowledge as unsustainable levels of national debt.

The wind is blowing the other way. Nick Timiraos reports,

An earlier proposal, issued in April 2011, said the skin-in-the-game rules wouldn’t apply to mortgage securities containing loans where borrowers made at least a 20% down payment.

Now, regulators want to scrap that requirement, meaning that banks would have to retain 5% only of mortgages that allow borrowers to make “interest-only” payments or that don’t fully document a borrower’s ability to repay a mortgage—a much smaller portion of the market that includes the riskiest loan products that caused much of the crisis-time losses.

Hensarling wants to get the government out of the business of deciding what makes mortgages eligible for government insurance subsidies, by eliminating those subsidies.

Right now, because of the Dodd-Frank Act, Washington has more control over who can buy a home than your local bank. The PATH Act addresses these devastating rules head on, getting Washington out of the way to allow banks to lend, builders to build, Realtors to sell, and home buyers to buy.

The Great Demographic Stagnation

Rob Arnott and Denis Chaves write,

the developed world is entering a new phase in which the low fertility rates of past decades lead to slow growth (in many countries, no growth) in the young adult population; young adults are the dominant engine for GDP growth. Mature adults, many of whom are at or near their peak productivity, are poised to retire, creating an impressive surge in the rolls of senior citizens. These newlyminted senior citizens, transitioning from near-peak productivity to retirement in a single step, will be drawing on the economy while no longer producing goods and services. The unequivocal good news of a steady rise in life expectancy means that these retirees will create a very substantial drag on GDP growth, as these seniors move from peak productivity to negligible productivity in just a few years.

I think that with old people healthier, productivity does not have to drop off so much at age 60. And we do have the ability to change the age of government dependency. But read the whole thing. The point that we have a major slowdown in economic growth baked into demographics seems straightforward and powerful.

UPDATE: Kevin Erdmann shows how demographics have affected labor force participation in the U.S. the past decade.

Youth Unemployment

Diana G. Carew writes,

Of the 17 million Americans age 16-24 not enrolled in school or working full-time in July 2013, 5.6 million were working part-time, 3.2 million were unemployed – a 17.1 percent unemployment rate – and another 8.4 million were not in the labor force altogether.

Together, these charts suggest the problem facing young Americans is structural. If worsening labor market conditions were a temporary effect of the recession, we would have expected to see improvement with the recovery. Instead, young Americans appear stuck in their post-recessionary state.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen.

Why is the gap between the reservation wage and marginal revenue product so much higher among young people than among others?

Some possibilities:

1. The trend in the Thete lifestyle is to work only sporadically, counting on support from relatives and the government.

2. The minimum wage is much more binding than we thought.

3. Downward wage stickiness is much more prevalent among people who are new to the labor market than among middle-aged workers. (I admit I am being sarcastic here)

The Housing Lobby Wins Again

Matt Yglesias writes,

the administration isn’t pushing for any major rethink of housing policy in the wake of the crisis. The idea that the government should encourage people to make leveraged investments in owner-occupied housing and that these investments should be the cornerstone of middle-class savings is alive and well with us.

There are real estate agents and mortgage brokers in every Congressional district. That tells you everything you need to know about how housing policy is going to be made.

Megan McArdle on Thetes

She writes,

to people at the bottom of the income distribution, telling them to wait to have children until they’ve found a stable partner and a steady job seems about as reasonable as telling them to wait until after they’ve won the Heisman Trophy. There aren’t a lot of jobs that a high-school graduate can count on to deliver long-term, full-time employment.

It is possible that there are emerging two classes with very different tastes. The Vickies want long-term, full-time employment, health insurance, stable marriages to partners with “consumption complementarity,” and upper-middle class schools for their children (if any). The thetes do not value those goods as highly. They prefer to be more impulsive and less compulsive.

My Reading Pile

I am still struggling with Kenneth Minogue’s The Servile Mind. I do not think any of the reviews that I have seen present a satisfying summary. I probably will take on the challenge myself at some point. I cannot tell whether my attachment to the three-axis model helps or hurts me in getting perspective on the book. He clearly dislikes the oppressor-oppressed axis, and he thinks that those who view society in those terms are necessarily headed in a statist direction that undermines individual moral character. He wants to champion individual moral choice over what he calls the “politico-moral world” of collectivist ideals. He sees individualism in moral choice as a unique characteristic of modernity, and he sees in the ideologies that bemoan “inequality” a pull backward toward traditionalism.

The rest of the books in my pile are review copies. Edmund Phelps’ Mass Flourishing overlaps a bit with Minogue, actually. In his concluding paragraph, Phelps writes,

a full return to high dynamism will require that those modern values prevail again over traditional ones: Nations will have to push back against the resurgence of traditional values that have been so suffocating in recent decades and revive the modern values that stirred people to go boldly forth toward lives of richness.

Phelps’ view of the past forty years is basically stagnationist.

Jay W. Richards’ Infiltrated suggests that the low-income-housing advocates (a) caused the financial crisis and (b) are still active politically. He describes Herb and Marion Sandler’s California savings bank in somewhat ambivalent terms. He writes,

some 70 percent of the company’s loans had substantial down payments, contrary to the subprime practice of offering loans with zero down.

His main indictment of the Sandlers is that they sold their bank at the peak of the bubble and then used the profits to fund left-wing political organizations. A strange book.

Derek Bok’s Higher Education in America is much more sanguine than I would be. He writes,

there is surprisingly little evidence that attending a highly selective college with impressive average SAT (ACT) scores produces exceptional improvement in the cognitive abilities of students.

A few pages later, with no sense of irony, he asserts,

The reason why so many capable students from low-income families do not apply to a selective college is that they are poorly informed.

Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions. They indict India for its inequality and lack of infrastructure for its poor.

In 2011 half of all Indian households did not have access to toilets…compared with less than 10 percent of households lacking this facility in Bangladesh and only 1 percent or so in China.

I think that if we understood why this is the case, we probably would know a lot more about India than we do. Dreze and Sen make it sound like a lack of willpower on the part of the Indian elites, but my guess is that is not the whole story.

Ohanian, Taylor, and Wright, editors, Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery. Proceedings of a conference dedicated to bashing Obama-era policies, except for Robert Hall, who did not get the memo.

In my reading, the primary source of the current state of the economy is simple–it’s that people aren’t buying enough stuff…The non-household part of private expenditure–that’s plant and equipment investment–seems to have actually outperformed its normal response to a collapse of consumption. The source of low output and employment in today’s economy is the huge decline in household spending.

Hasan Comert, Central Banks and Financial Markets: The Declining Power of US Monetary Policy. Based on a dissertation out of the left-wing, post-Keynesian U. Mass Amherst. I have high hopes for this book. From the introduction:

there has been a gradual decoupling between the Fed policy rate and both quantities and asset prices in financial markets. In this sense, the whole period [since the 1980s] can be seen as a period of decreasing effectiveness of central banks because their influence over financial markets has gradually decreased.

Expect to read more from me on Comert and Minogue, and possibly Phelps. Probably not the others.

The Newspaper Business

The newspaper business is going to die within the next twenty years. Newspaper publishing will continue, but only as a philanthropic venture.

That was me, writing in 2002.

“We’re in a post-profit era for newspapers,” Mutter says, noting the not-entirely-economic reasons behind recent rich guy purchases of the Globe and the San Diego Union-Tribune, not to mention the Koch brothers’ interest in the L.A. Times.

That is Lydia DiPillis, writing on August 5 of this year. She claims, however, that the Washington Post is not a charity case, even though she uses the term “money pit” to describe its current business condition.