Russ Roberts on Bootleggers and Baptists

He offers a primer on the model.

The Baptists give the politicians cover for doing what the bootleggers want. No politician says we should ban liquor sales on Sunday in order to enrich the bootleggers who support his campaign. The politician holds up one hand to heaven and talk about his devotion to morality. With the other hand, he collects campaign contributions (or bribes) from the bootleggers.

He proceeds to give some very depressing real-world examples of how this plays out in public policy.

Think tanks and special interests

Daniel Drezner writes,

New America is embroiled in a pay-for-play controversy of its own making. The New York Times reported that Slaughter had parted ways with Barry Lynn, an influential critic of the growing clout of U.S. tech companies. He ran Open Markets, an initiative “to promote greater awareness of the political and economic dangers of monopolization,” and had been scathing in his assessments of Google, a firm that had donated more than $21 million to New America’s coffers. Slaughter has disputed some of the facts in the story and issued a statement asserting that Lynn’s “refusal to adhere to New America’s standards of openness and institutional collegiality” led to the rupture. Slaughter didn’t deny, however, that she had implored Lynn in emails, “We are in the process of trying to expand our relationship with Google on some absolutely key points,” nor that she had warned Lynn to “just THINK about how you are imperiling funding for others.”

My thoughts:

1. For a long time, I thought that the New America Foundation was excessively focused on the “net neutrality” issue. Google has promoted the same definition of “net neutrality.” So if it is corrupt for New America to be aligned with Google, then New America has been corrupt for a long time. The issue with Barry Lynn is almost beside the point.

2. It does strike me as unseemly when a particular business interest provides funding for a researcher and gets research that aligns with its interests. I am bothered by the Stiglitz-Orszag work for Fannie Mae. You may recall that I accused the Brookings Institution and something called the Bipartisan Policy Center of doing the bidding of big banks.

3. It seems to me that the infamous Kochs tend to fund on the basis of ideology, which I regard as less unseemly than funding on the basis of corporate interest. Perhaps I am naive about that. Ironically, I think that their libertarian ideology, if it were to gain sway, would reduce the power of special interests by taking government out of the arenas in which special interests exert so much power.

4. I think that there are much worse forms of political heavy-handedness than funding research. The housing lobby and the teachers’ unions come to mind.

5. I do not think that there is an effective way to stop businesses from funding research that is in their interest. Economists write what they honestly believe (that includes Stiglitz, the Brookings researchers, and the New America folks). It is natural for corporations to find that research supporting their interests is credible and deserves support. Do not attribute to conspiracy what can be explained by confirmation bias.

6. Should you always trust government-funded research more than private-funded research? Suppose that the topic is the Fed’s conduct during the financial crisis. Suppose that the research is funded by the Fed.

7. It is often the case that there is research that supports either side of an issue. The problem is not so much that special interests are able to fund “their” side. The problem is when the other side cannot get funding at all, or cannot get its results disseminated and discussed. That would be a harder problem to spot. It is one thing to identify a source of funding. It is another thing to identify a source of non-funding.

A notewriter on public choice

He or she writes,

Unlike providing pure public goods or setting generally applicable laws, the more widely accepted function of the state, the direct provision of goods and services can impact on people’s personal wealth and satisfaction in much more pressing ways. . .

. . .producers previously used to competing, albeit imperfectly, under an open market regime, will now set their eyes very carefully on the people tasked with commissioning their services: the public officials. Rather than competing for customers directly, in this new higher-stakes game, they will have to aggressively lobby officials for public contracts or employment. The result is that the same behaviour in the same sector of the economy that produces relatively efficient outcomes under market rules, produces inefficient, even predatory outcomes under democratic rules.

Pointer from Mark Thoma.

The really pure public choice view is that in the market and in politics, the same human motives are operating. They just operate under different institutional rules in each case. The less doctrinaire view would say that social norms also may differ between the market realm and the political realm. In theory, it is possible for the norms of political behavior to attenuate the tendency toward inefficient and predatory outcomes. How well this works in practice is certainly debatable.

Clarifying Two Terms

1. Interpretive Charity

This is Jeffrey Friedman’s term. I think that it means trying to understand someone else’s point of view before criticizing it. It means trying to set up the strongest case for the opposing point of view for counter-argument, rather than attacking a weak or straw-man version of the opposing point of view. In Bryan Caplan’s terminology, try to pass an ideological Turing test before you engage in debate.

2. Asymmetric insight

This is David McRaney’s term. It is close to the opposite of interpretive charity. It means taking the view that you understand the other side’s true motives, which they themselves do not understand.

Pete Boettke would say that public choice theory is symmetric, in that it takes people to operate under the same incentives in politics as in the market. But that is a different meaning of “symmetric.”

Many people would deny that their political motives are dominated by the pursuit of material advantage. Thus, when you claim that they are pursuing material advantage, you are claiming to have insight into their motives that they lack. That is asymmetric insight, and it is the opposite of interpretive charity. Of course, on occasion asymmetric insight is accurate and interpretive charity is too kind.

A commenter points to a passage from Dan Klein.

We just need to make clear that when we offer a description based on assumptions of self-seeking behavior, we present the description as one, simplified description of the matter, and not the one that the political participants themselves believe.

Describing behavior in ways that participants themselves do not believe is uncharitable–although, again, it might turn out to be correct. Medical professionals genuinely believe that licensing requirements protect the public. It is the economist’s task to show that this is incorrect the net effect on the public is negative, regardless of motive. Trying to ascribe self-seeking motives to the medical professionals is at best beside the point and at worst uncharitable.

Finally, let me return to the idea of interpreting “self-interest” broadly, so that it need not be limited to material advantage. . A man sacrifices his life to defend his country? Well, he had an interest in acting honorably. A man advocates for a policy that hurts his own business? Well, he had an interest in being well thought of.

If there is no limit to the breadth of your definition, then “people act in their self-interest” is a tautology. It is always true, and that makes the statement uninteresting. If you want to make an interesting statement, you have to take the risk that your statement will be false. Saying that people make choices to try to maximize material advantage is an interesting statement. It risks being false, and indeed it often is false. However, it is true in so many contexts that it is quite useful.

Jeffrey Friedman on Public Choice theory

He writes,

Public-choice theory rules out interpretive charity in advance. All that is left is the imputation of bad motives to one’s political opponents.

. . .Actions may be objectively evil, but subjectively, everyone is doing what they think is somehow justified. Attributions of (subjectively) evil motives end the process of scholarship before it can begin. In studying politics, we want to know (among other things) why evil results may flow even from good motives—as an unintended consequence.

Read the whole post. There is a strong temptation to believe in asymmetric insight, meaning that you claim to know the other person’s motives better than they know themselves. This is a temptation that one ought to try to resist.

Friedman is somewhat hard on public choice theory. I have been hard on it myself. Still, it has some value, as when it predicts that public policies in areas like housing or health care will tend toward subsidizing demand and restricting supply.

Yes, but can it help you predict?

From acommenter:

I’d ask why self-interest needs to be manifested in overtly economic terms.

If you define self-interest broadly enough, then the statement “people pursue their self-interest” becomes irrefutable. And if you cannot refute it, then it is just an empty tautology.

I would much prefer to work with refutable claims than with empty tautologies.

So I continue to treat public choice theory as saying that people pursue economic gain in the political process. With that definition, public choice theory is often wrong, but at least it can be usefully right.

Thoughts on public choice theory

A reader asks,

What (if any) would you consider to be the most powerful rebuttal(s) of public choice theory?

First, Bueller, what is public choice theory? Jane Shaw writes that its adherents believe that

although people acting in the political marketplace have some concern for others, their main motive, whether they are voters, politicians, lobbyists, or bureaucrats, is self-interest.

I think that captures the spirit of public choice theory, but I would tighten it up. I prefer:

Public choice theorists examine what is likely to occur if participants in the political process are motivated primarily by personal economic gain.

In any case, one rebuttal that leaps out at me is the fact that so many people vote, given the extreme unlikelihood that one’s vote will determine the election outcome, and the rather large unlikelihood that the election outcome really will directly affect your personal well-being in a deterministic way. From the standpoint of self-interest, the cost of voting far exceeds the expected personal benefit. If people were self-interested when it comes to voting, we would expect to see fewer people bothering to cast ballots.

The same argument applies to other participants in the policy process. Some people who run for office or accept government positions clearly lower their lifetime incomes by doing so. That should not happen if they are motivated primarily by personal economic gain.

There should be a literature demonstrating how court decisions are affected by the self-interest of judges. That literature, if it exists, has not come to my attention.

One colorful model of public policy is “bootleggers and Baptists,” both of whom would like to see alcohol made illegal. Public choice theory explains the bootleggers, but not the Baptists.

Finally, what of public choice theorists themselves? If everyone is always acting solely out of a goal of personal economic gain, then why trust what a public choice theorist says? (This is a problem for any universal reductionist theory of motivation. Was Freud just articulating his theories out of hatred for his father and love for his mother?)

Thinking about public choice theory as a project to reduce political science to individualistic economics, I judge it to be a failure. Instead, you have to bring in sociology, including status hierarchies, tribalism, and sources of group cohesion, especially symbols and language.

So there is a lot to criticize in public choice theory. And I have not even brought up the issue of how, if at all, a Constitution is supposed to solve public choice problems.

But if you should not try to do too much with public choice theory, to ignore it altogether is a serious mistake. And many economists make that mistake.

For example, textbook public finance is based on public goods theory, which says that government should (and presumably will) undertake policies to correct market incentives when those incentives would lead to underproduction or overproduction of certain goods. It assumes, or implicitly predicts, that economic analysis will be the main determinant of public policy.

Instead, public choice theory predicts that those with an economic stake in a policy outcome will work harder to achieve that outcome than people who have no stake. That prediction generally holds, and it matters. It is the influence of public choice theory that leads me to predict that when single payer health care comes to the U.S., the insurance companies will remain active as profitable public utilities rather than get shut out.

When I say that government intervention in a market almost always takes the form of “subsidize demand, restrict supply,” I am applying public choice theory. In contrast, standard public goods theory would not expect this combination of policies, because one serves to increase output of the good and the other serving to decrease output. From the public goods perspective, it is contradictory to subsidize demand while restricting supply.

An even more naive political model is “good guys are with me, but there are bad guys out there who mess things up.” That model serves as the basis for every Paul Krugman column, and it strikes me as the basis for Nancy MacLean’s infamous book. And it is not just people on the left who are guilty of using the naive model. The Three Languages of Politics shows how everyone uses the naive model.

I think that the public choice framework of interpretation has plenty of room for competitors. But there is little effective competition provided by the public goods framework or the naive framework.

Nancy MacLean: ignoring the central ethical issue

Henry Farrell and Steven Teles write,

MacLean is not only wrong in detail but mistaken in the fundamentals of her account.

I have met both Farrell and Teles, at dinners organized by Teles and Brink Lindsey, for “liberaltarians.” The liberaltarian project always seemed to me to be quixotic, but it did demonstrate overlap between (some) progressives and libertarians on a few economic issues, particularly related to Public Choice. Farrell and Teles strike me as coming more from the liberal camp as opposed to the libertarian camp. But because they are receptive to Public Choice ideas, some progressives might consider them to be heretics.

Historian Andrew Seal writes,

Some of my colleagues and I at the Society for US Intellectual History Blog and I are planning a roundtable to discuss Democracy in Chains as a work of intellectual history, in large part because we feel that the critiques of MacLean’s work have not adequately engaged with its core arguments and because these critiques often seem unfamiliar with the “best practices” of intellectual history.

For me, the central issue is scholarly ethics. I expect that when it comes to history, many books will be written that have narratives that are controversial and have flimsy support. That is acceptable.

The ethical issue is whether the historian has an obligation to make the effort to elevate truth above narrative. Did Nancy MacLean make that effort, as Seal’s use of the phrase “best practices” implies?

For example, I could wish to create a narrative that tries to portray Dr. Martin Luther King as a racist, and I could do so while staying within ethical boundaries. It might not be very persuasive, of course. But if I quote Dr. King as saying “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will…be judged by the color of their skin” (i.e., leaving out the word “not”), then that is unethical. That seems pretty clear to me. And it seems to me that MacLean’s conduct comes pretty close to that, yet I do not see it condemned outright as unethical by Farrell and Teles, much less by Seal.

Let me put it this way: if MacLean’s actions do not constitute easily-recognized and serious violations of the ethics of the history profession, then that profession has no ethics. And historians on the left ought to be thinking about whether that is what they want.

John Goodman on health legislation prospects

He writes (email newsletter, I can’t find a web link),

This is a $3 trillion industry and basically all the special interests want to keep the basic structure of Obamacare. Each wants to get rid of its own Obamacare tax. But they want to keep the taxes on everyone else. That’s the main reason why the Obamacare revenues will stay in the system and there will be almost no federal health reform.

My takeaway is that the optimistic case for the bill is that it will allow the states to go in separate directions on health care, and perhaps in some states more market-oriented approaches will have an opportunity to succeed. The pessimistic case is that the health care system will remain a kludge, and the next time the Democrats are in power they will institute single payer.

But the single payer that we get will be much uglier than what other countries have, because of the power wielded by the provider interest groups. In fact, don’t be surprised if it turns out that the health insurance companies stay smack dab in the middle of our version of “single payer.”

Looting the state governments

The Mercatus center ranks the fiscal condition of the fifty states.

The worst, at number 50, is New Jersey, followed (preceded?) by Illinois, Massachusetts, Kentucky, and Maryland. California is 43, and New York is 39. So by my count 4 of the bottom 5 states and 6 of the bottom 12 are known for powerful public-sector unions. I see that as a likely cause of fiscal weakness in those states, and I doubt that those six will climb out of trouble.