Somewheres vs. Anywheres

we need more nuanced terminology than “populists” versus “elites.” Thankfully, David Goodhart, a British author affiliated with the London think tank Policy Exchange and the founding editor of Prospect, offers just that. In his forthcoming book, The Road to Somewhere, Goodhart sees “two rival value blocks” that are setting people at odds with each other: those who see the world from anywhere versus those who see the world from somewhere. Educated and mobile, the Anywheres value autonomy, openness, and fluidity. They flourish in a globalized economy: If a software engineer loses his job in one city, he packs up and moves to another, with national boundaries posing little impediment. By contrast, the Somewheres are more rooted and less well educated. They value group attachments, familiarity, and security—they are deeply concerned about the welfare of particular places.

That is from Michael Doran and Peter Rough. I’ve been using the terms Abstract vs. Concrete, or Bobo vs. anti-Bobo. The Bobos are Anywheres because they could be comfortable anywhere among other members of the Abstract class. As I put it in The Three Languages of Politics, they are more comfortable in Prague than in Peoria. The Somewheres need to be located in their home town in order to work and to feel comfortable.

One can argue that the Somewheres and the Anywheres need one another, although neither side would admit it. The Anywheres have the competence in dealing with abstractions in the economy and government. The Somewheres have patriotic solidarity, without which the Anywheres might have their world broken up by face violence and chaos. Note, of course, that the libertarian line is that government is the chief source of violence and chaos, and if you go with that, then patriotic solidarity is a bug rather than a feature. I have trouble buying into this particular libertarian line.

By the way, Goodhart’s book is due to be available July 1.

My Review of Kevin Laland

The book is Darwin’s Unfinished Symphony, which is still my favorite non-fiction book of 2017. My review says,

Laland weaved together mathematical models, simulation exercises, experiments, and observations in a way that was much more persuasive than most social science. I recommend that economists read the book in order to stimulate thinking on how to improve our research methods.

The Samuelson Story

I am still reading the Backhouse intellectual biography. What a monumental effort! By comparison, it makes Sebastian Mallaby’s biography of Alan Greenspan look like a summer vacation project. But I recommend Mallaby to anyone. Backhouse is for people with a pretty narrow interest in the history of economic thought.

A few more comments.

1. Backhouse sees Samuelson as making a major contribution to clarifying Keynes. I disagree. At most, Samuelson provided the freshman interpretation. But for intermediate courses and above, Hicks was the go-to clarifier, and he preceded Samuelson. Backhouse agrees that the intermediate courses left Samuelson behind.

It seems that a lot of the initial confusion about the simple Keynesian multiplier concerned the process by which it was supposed to play out. You can write down Y = C + I + G and C = a + bY and then solve for Y and C in terms of the other letters, but nobody in the 1930s or 1940s thought in terms of such an instantaneous equilibrium. Instead, they thought in terms of a solution being ground out over time, iterating back and forth between the two equations. There were any number of plausible lag structures, and also a variety of plausible definitions of investment, consumption, and savings.

As Backhouse points out, in hindsight it appears that Keynesian economists were floundering unnecessarily in their attempts to deal with what we now regard as the simplest class of models. Perhaps without Samuelson the floundering would have been worse and more long-lasting. I am not convinced.

But the main reason I do not give Samuelson credit for clarifying Keynes is that Keynesian economics remains unclear to this day. And economists who call themselves Keynesians would be the first to admit that.

2. The conventional narrative is that Samuelson made mid-century economics. His prodigious talent shaped the profession. Backhouse sticks with this narrative.

I would pose an alternative narrative, which is that mid-century economics made Samuelson. Sometimes a movement needs to create a larger-than-life figure. In religion, the larger-than-life figure might be Christ or Mohammed or the Buddha. In a nation at war, it might be Napoleon or Churchill.

In the (seemingly) secular world of Olympic sports, the broadcast network will try to make a few athletes larger than life. And speaking of Keynes, he became a larger-than-life figure in the movement to promote activist macroeconomic policy.

With his unbounded ego, Samuelson moved easily into his heroic role. He was a legend in his own mind, given to overstating both the rigor of his mathematics and the significance of his analysis. Had he appeared at a different point in history, this might have earned him scorn and derision. But when Samuelson arrived as a graduate student at Harvard, there was a strong latent desire, particular among younger economists, to show that they were scientists and to show that they, unlike their elders, knew how to prevent and cure Depressions. So instead of pushing back against his arrogance, his peers heaped praise on his work. In the process, they were raising their own status relative to older economists while creating a new and more exalted public image of the economics profession.

By the way, I think that the same thing happened, to a lesser degree, with some of the stars of 1970s macro, such as Robert E. Lucas, Jr., and Christopher Sims. Some of their peers saw an opportunity to raise their own status by characterizing Lucas and Sims as intellectual giants who towered over everyone else.

My own view is that in economics there are no towering giants, in the sense of economists whose aptitude for the subject far exceeds that of others in their cohort. Some economists are a bit more creative than others, some work much harder than others (Samuelson was certainly exceptional in the efficiency and extent of his work effort), and some play the academic game much better than others. But the distribution of rewards ends up being much more skewed than the distribution of talent.

Creative destruction and the shopping mall

The LA Times reports,

Between 20% and 25% of the nation’s shopping malls will close in the next five years, according to a new report from Credit Suisse that predicts e-commerce will continue to pull shoppers away from bricks-and-mortar retailers.

I have remarked before that when I was young, a shopping mall’s revenue came from its stores, but today, the revenue seems to be in the food court.

The brick-and-mortar grocery industry is still expanding (at least in our area), and restaurants seem to be doing well. I wonder at what point Amazon fill find a way to go after those businesses.

The make-or-buy decision with respect to human capital

From a National Academy of Sciences report:

As long-term employment becomes less common, new ways of providing for health care and pensions for all workers need to be considered that transcend their relationships with particular employers. For example, one option would be to institute portable pension plans administered by membership organizations dedicated to the well-being of their members.

Pointer from Timothy Taylor, who includes this quote from the report:

Many employers are increasingly viewing their relationship with employees as a short-term commitment rather than a lifelong investment. As Manpower Group CEO Jonas Prising recently put it, `Employers have gone from being builders of talent to consumers of work.’

Note, however, that this supposed decrease in the share of long-term relationships between employers and employees is not so evident in the data.

Still, I think that the trend is toward firms making more and more use of generic software. (I predicted this almost twenty years ago.) In fact, software-development specialists make more and more use of generic software.

Gary Becker developed the distinction between specific human capital, which is tied to a particular firm, and generic human capital, which can be used anywhere. The more that firms outsource non-core functions and make use of generic software the less they need to invest in specific human capital. Thus, they will tend to do less talent-building and act more like “consumers of work.”

Two Thoughts on William Niskanen

I had only one close encounter with him. That was when he went to a Congressman’s office to argue against TARP and he invited me to join in the meeting. My observations about him:

1. He was highly principled. If he disagreed with a libertarian article of faith (such as the view that “starve the beast” would lower spending), he would say so. But he was certainly no friend of the establishment’s belief in itself and in big government. He knew that the elites were solidly for TARP, and that made him all the more willing to try to stop it.

2. He was modest and gentlemanly. He would have been the last person to engage in trolling for self-aggrandizement.