The Two Parties

Tyler Cowen writes,

both the Democrats and the Republicans have their ready made, mostly true, and repeatedly self-confirming stories about the defects of the other. They need only read the news to feel better about themselves, and the academic contingent of the Democrats is better at this than are most ordinary citizens. There is thus a rather large cottage industry of intellectuals interpreting and channeling these stories to Democratic voters and sympathizers. On the right, you will find an equally large cottage industry, sometimes reeking of intolerance or at least imperfect tolerance, peddling mostly true stories about the failures of Democratic governance, absurd political correctness, tribal loyalties, and so on. That industry has a smaller role for the intellectuals and a larger role for preachers and talk radio.

It is characteristic of Tyler, and also of Robin Hanson and on occasion Bryan Caplan, to look at human behavior in terms of status competition. If you buy into that, as I do, then a reasonable way to differentiate the parties is in terms of whose status they wish to elevate and whose status they wish to demean.

1. I would say that for Democrats, the goal is to elevate the status of public sector workers, social scientists, well-educated people in general, urban residents, and members of groups who are willing to see themselves as oppressed groups fitting the Democratic narrative. They wish to demean the status of business owners, non-urban residents, strong religious believers, and working-class whites who fail to see themselves as an oppressed group fitting the Democratic narrative.

2. Note that Barack Obama hit most of the right buttons, in part simply by being black.

3. I would say that for Republicans, the goal is to elevate the status of members of the armed forces, non-urban residents, religious believers, small business owners, and working-class whites who prefer to blame their problems on society coddling immigrants and minority groups. They wish to demean the status of wealthy and successful progressives, particularly those in the media and entertainment industries. They wish to demean the status of unmarried individuals and of people they perceive as hostile to conventional families.

4. Note that Donald Trump has hit at least a couple of the right buttons spectacularly effectively: raising the status of working-class whites who prefer to blame their problems on society coddling immigrants and minority groups; and demeaning the status of wealth and successful progressives, particularly those in the media.

5. Note that many of Trump’s negative traits, including narcissism, authoritarianism, and uncharitable views of those who disagree with him, are shared by Barack Obama.

6. Denouncing Trump is a form of virtue signaling. That is, it is a cheap way to try to raise your status among well-educated people.

7. Notwithstanding all of these remarks on status competition, one may still think of politics in terms of ideology. And I think of Donald Trump as destroying the Republican Party as an ideological vehicle. In terms of Clay Shirky’s metaphor, the host (the Republican Party) has been taken over by a parasite (Trump). The Republicans I know tend to subscribe to a conservative/libertarian ideology. None of them would vote for Trump in a primary, and most of them would not vote for him in November.

8. From my point of view, the Trump candidacy has no upside and considerable downside. I doubt that a Trump victory would lead to policies that correspond to a conservative/libertarian agenda. And I think that he can only hurt Republican candidates for other offices. When those candidates are asked whether or not they support Trump, there is no answer that they can give that will not cost them votes.

9. Conversely, those on the Democratic side with an overt ideology are in a no-lose position. The ideological Overton window has moved very far to the left, somewhere between Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

The Issue that Worries Me

Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale write,

Although current deficits are reasonably low, the medium and long-term fiscal outlooks have deteriorated in the past year, due largely to legislative actions (and their implications for future policy) and changes in economic projections. Even under a low interest rate scenario, the long-term budget outlook is unsustainable. Moreover, the nation already carries a debt load that is twice as large as its historical average as a share of GDP and that makes evolution of the debt-GDP ratio much more sensitive to interest rates.

The necessary adjustments will be large relative to those adopted under recent legislation. Moreover, the most optimistic long-run projections already incorporate the effects of success at “bending the curve” of health care cost growth, so further measures will clearly be needed. These changes, however, relate to the medium- and long-term deficits, not the short-term deficit.

They say that the solution is to build a wall on our southern border.

Just kidding.

Really Bad Sentences

Ilya Somin’s Democracy and Political Ignorance suffers from the fallacy of composition: It uses individual-level evidence about political behavior to draw inferences about the preferences and actions of the public as a whole. But collective public opinion is more stable, consistent, coherent, and responsive to the best available information, and more reflective of citizens’ underlying values and interests, than are the opinions of most individual citizens.

Those sentences, from Benjamin Page of the political science department of Northwestern University, were published in 2015. I don’t think that they hold up so well in 2016. I wonder how many of the critical participants in the symposium on Somin’s book (note: in several months, this link may lead somewhere else) would care to reconsider their views. As always with academics, I expect fewer to reconsider than should do so.

[Note: I wrote this post before Tyler also posted on the symposium, but I scheduled it for now.]

I think that a lot of conventional wisdom in political science is starting to look like pre-September 2008 conventional wisdom in macroeconomics. As Daniel Drezner put it,

the political science theories predicting that someone like Trump was highly unlikely to win a major-party nomination were so widely believed that they turned out to refute themselves.

RCT’s as Slow Learning

Ricardo Hausmann writes,

Consider the following thought experiment: We include some mechanism in the tablet to inform the teacher in real time about how well his or her pupils are absorbing the material being taught. We free all teachers to experiment with different software, different strategies, and different ways of using the new tool. The rapid feedback loop will make teachers adjust their strategies to maximize performance.

Over time, we will observe some teachers who have stumbled onto highly effective strategies. We then share what they have done with other teachers.

Notice how radically different this method is. Instead of testing the validity of one design by having 150 out of 300 schools implement the identical program, this method is “crawling” the design space by having each teacher search for results. Instead of having a baseline survey and then a final survey, it is constantly providing feedback about performance. Instead of having an econometrician do the learning in a centralized manner and inform everybody about the results of the experiment, it is the teachers who are doing the learning in a decentralized manner and informing the center of what they found.

Pointer from Mark Thoma. Emphasis added.

Read the whole thing. I had never before thought of randomized controlled trials as embedded in a top-down approach to learning. He is suggesting the decentralized learning could be faster. Might the same be true in medicine? And is this also a case against MOOCs?

Praise for the Council of Economic Advisers

1. Timothy Taylor writes,

When you read a CEA report, there is always a certain admixture of politics, and at some points over the roughly 40 years I’ve been reading these resorts, the partisanship has been severe enough to make me wince. But it’s also true that one can read just about any report looking for ways to discredit it. My own approach is instead to search for nuggets of fact and insight, and over the years, CEA reports have typically offered plenty.

2. Robert J. Samuelson writes,

Thumbing through the annual report of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is always an education. This year’s 430-page edition is no exception. Crammed with tables and charts, it brims with useful facts and insights.

●On page 62, we learn that the growth of state and local government spending on services (schools, police, parks) has been the slowest of any recovery since World War II. One reason: Payments into underfunded pensions are draining money from services. . .

Probably a useful corrective to my typical focus on what I didn’t like about the CEA report.