My take on the Barry Goldwater debacle is derived from a book I read 50 years ago by Robert Novak, called The Agony of the GOP, 1964. The book was to tap the market that Theodore White found with “The Making of President, 1960” and subsequent works. I don’t think that Novak’s book did nearly as well. I read it only because my father was sent a review copy, and he was not interested.
What I remember from the book was all of the idiosyncratic factors that went into the 1964 election. For example, George Romney (Mitt’s father) gaffed himself out of the race by saying that a briefing he had received on Vietnam consisted of “brainwashing.” In hindsight, that remark seems like a nugget of insight, but it offended Republicans who were staunchly anti-Communist and saw Romney as giving aid and comfort to the enemy by accusing our side of brainwashing. [UPDATE: that gaffe came after 1964. I was a bit worried about my memory when I put up this post. I should have checked. By the way, I don’t still have a copy of Novak’s book. I with I could have remembered more of the idiosyncratic factors that were actually in it.]
Another random event that effected 1964 was Nelson Rockefeller’s remarriage. Having survived politically after a divorce, he figured that getting remarried would not be a problem. But he married the woman who had broken up his first marriage, an in those days that offended people, particularly married women. Down went Rockefeller.
Think of the events that are conspiring to make Donald Trump a possible (likely?) nominee. The primary schedule, with the largest early voice going to small states and southern states. The large field, which allows a candidate to appear to be a big winner with less than 50 percent of the vote. The strange “debates” in which the issues take a back seat to the dynamic between the media personalities and the candidates.
Unless Hillary Clinton is indicted I (and perhaps even if she is), I think that a Trump nomination will lead to a Republican debacle comparable to 1964. In a sense it will be worse, because the best the Republicans could have hoped for in 1964 was a respectable defeat. This year, they would be throwing away a reasonable chance of winning.