Four Forces Watch

Jon Birger writes,

according to separate research by University of Pennsylvania economist Jeremy Greenwood and by UCLA sociologists Christine Schwartz and Robert Mare, educational intermarriage is less common today than at any point over the past half century.

The drum he is beating (Tyler Cowen has a link to a different piece by Birger) is that within a demographic segment, ratios of females to males matter. If you define the segment as “young, college-educated,” the outlook for women looks bleak, because of the high ratio of females to males in that segment.

Would it be reasonable to infer that in the segment “young, not college-educated” that there are more men than women? Why aren’t women in that segment enjoying lots of marriage prospects?

Perhaps many males in that segment do not offer much in terms of income.

Kicking China when it’s Down

Yasheng Huang writes,

The lasting contributions of infrastructures come from their usage, not from their construction. This is why a bridge to nowhere can boost GDP temporarily, but it has no long-run positive effect. On that, China falls short. It has several “ghost cities,” rows and rows of apartment buildings that are unsold and vacant, and lightly utilized highways and airports.

He makes it sound like China has the socialist calculation problem in spades.

Ancient Trade and Trust

1. From Adam Davidson in the NYT magazine:

At the city gate, Assur-idi ran into a younger acquaintance, Sharrum-Adad, who said he was heading on the same journey. He offered to take the older man’s donkeys with him and ship the profits back. The two struck a hurried agreement and wrote it up, though they forgot to record some details. Later, Sharrum-­Adad claimed he never knew how many textiles he had been given.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen.

This apparently took place in the 19th century, BC. Long-time readers will know that I have taken the view that archaelogists are finding evidence of plunder and calling it evidence of trade. But this example (read the whole story) shows that I am wrong about that.

The main focus of the article is the gravity model of trade, which says that trade between any two entities (cities, countries) is positively related to their size in terms of population and negatively related to the distance between them.

2. Josiah Ober says,

The key to unlocking the puzzling success of the Greek city-state ecology is economic specialization and exchange. Specialization was based on developing and exploiting a local advantage, relative to other producers, in the production of some valued good or service. . .

the costs of transactions were driven down by continuous institutional innovations, notably by the development and rapid spread of silver coinage as a reliable exchange medium; the dissemination of common standards for weights and measures; the creation of market regulations and officials to enforce them; and increasingly sophisticated systems of law and legal mechanisms for dispute resolution.

The whole piece is interesting.