An Attempt to Explain Bill Dudley?

Ryan Tracy of the WSJ discusses a new paper on the revolving door between Wall Street and regulators.

its findings suggest that the revolving door may be driven by an entirely different force. Instead of “regulatory capture,” the paper provides evidence consistent with “regulatory schooling” – the idea that people take regulatory jobs to become experts on complex regulations before cashing in with a private sector job. Instead of having an incentive to go easy on banks, the “regulatory schooling” hypothesis suggests regulators have an incentive to make rules more complex.

The paper comes from the research staff at the New York Fed.

Questions on Iraq

1. There is a Sunni group that seems to be aligned with Al Qaeda fighting a government that seems to be aligned with Iran? Which dog do I have in that fight?

2. President Obama is looking into emergency military aid for the government. Republican hawks want air strikes. Which dog do I have in that fight?

Disability and Employment

Sarah Portlock of the WSJ reports,

In 2013, just over one in six — or 17.6% — of people who were disabled had a job, down slightly from the prior year. The report tracks workforce characteristics of people with a disability, which includes hearing, sight, cognition, mobility or other impairments.

…The Labor Department report comes as new regulations require federal contractors to ask their employees if they have a disability in an effort to reduce joblessness in the community. Companies must employ a minimum of 7% disabled workers, or prove they are taking steps to hire more, or else they could face penalties or lose their government contracts.

In the first paragraph, she links to a report from the Department of Labor.

Government policies shift the supply curve of disabled workers to the left, by offering benefits for not working. The second paragraph describes a policy to shift the demand curve to the right. What would standard economic analysis predict?

One Thought on Illegal Immigrants

I sometimes wonder what would happen if we were to use a jury system to deal with illegal immigrants. That is, let an immigrant who is here illegally appeal to a jury of citizens for the right to become a citizen.

I think that a jury system might do two things. It might lead some anti-immigrant citizens who serve on such juries to appreciate the human issues involved for, say, a 16-year-old of Mexican origin who has lived for 14 years in the U.S. and known nothing of Mexico. It also might lead the immigrants themselves, about to come before juries, to think in terms of how they can assimilate and thereby come across as more appealing to a jury of citizens.

It seems to me that the defeat of Eric Cantor will be interpreted, probably correctly, as making it very difficult for Republicans to compromise on immigration issues. My guess is that this will help Democrats. I think that group-identity wedge issues tend to be their comparative advantage, but I could be wrong about that.

The Consensual Hallucination

William J. Luther and Lawrence JH. White write,

An inelastic supply in the face of volatile demand makes the value of bitcoin unstable relative to established currencies. While a drawback, this need not preclude bitcoin from spreading as a medium of exchange. Entrepreneurial innovations—market exchange pricing and instantaneous exchange facilities—enable bitcoin to function as a medium of exchange while allocating the speculative risk of holding it to those who are most willing to bear it (for a small price). Although it is still too early to know how greatly these innovations will widen bitcoin use, they give it a better chance of becoming a commonly accepted medium of exchange. If nothing else, the evolution of bitcoin and rival crypto-currencies will continue to provide us with the opportunity to ponder alternative payment systems and the possibilities for non-state money.

One way to think of money is to use William Gibson’s famous description of cyberspace: a consensual hallucination. We accept it as payment because other people accept it as payment. We think that prices will be pretty stable because other people think that prices will be pretty stable.

This takes us away from the mechanical quantity theory of money. Instead it suggests that there are multiple equilibria, one of which we happen to be experiencing. The behavior of prices is part of our consensual hallucination.

If the consensual hallucination concerning the dollar should break down, my guess is that another state currency will serve as the anchor. Swiss Franc? Canadian dollar? Singapore dollar?

Delivering Flexible Benefits

Wired reports,

At a recent event, hosted by Andreessen-Horowitz, on the future of retail, Berland pointed out that there are two things you always have with you: a credit card and a smartphone. The day is coming when we combine them. “What we are hyper-focused on is how do we merge those two things,” she says. “Especially as one day the physical card will disappear.”

Even before I read that story, I was thinking of using two media to deliver flex-benefit dollars: smart phones, for people who have them; and paper, for people who don’t. With smart phones, you require use of biometric ID to spend flex-benefit dollars, and I assume you make fraud a lot harder to pull off. With paper, you could print the person’s photo on the paper in order to make fraud difficult.

Means, Needs, and Federalism

For Setting National Economic Priorities, I have been suggesting consolidating means-tested programs into a single flexible benefit. One goal is to reduce marginal tax rates. Another advantage of this approach is that the first $2000 or so of the benefit can be directed toward purchasing catastrophic health insurance.

A third advantage of this approach is that it can untangle some of the overlaps between national and state/local programs. The basic principle would be that the Federal government, with a generic flex-benefit, would offer support based on means-testing. It could leave the assessment of special household needs to state and local governments as well as charities.

Special needs would include learning-disabled children, expensive medical illness, or high-cost housing.

We can imagine the Federal government paying households flex-benefit dollars based on a simple formula–perhaps $6000 per adult and $4000 per child, minus 25 percent of the household’s (taxable income plus value of employer-provided health insurance). Those of you who have been following these posts will notice that I keep playing with different values of the parameters. Those issues are still unsettled in my mind. It only recently occurred to me that fairness in distributing the universal benefit requires including employer-provided health insurance as income for purposes of phasing out the flex-dollar benefit.

By default, this money would go into a savings account. Households would not be allowed to withdraw from the savings account until they have purchased catastrophic health insurance.

State and local governments would be able to contribute to these accounts, based on their assessment of household needs. A household with a severely disabled child might receive $5000 per year from a state. A household in an area with expensive housing might receive $4000 a year from the local government. It would be up to state and local governments to decide whether to use this mechanism for distributing benefits or use something else.

We would abolish Medicaid. Instead, we would have the Federal government pay a fixed dollar amount to states that would go toward the cost of health care for the elderly and disabled that currently are covered by Medicaid.

We would abolish the Department of Housing and Urban Development. We would get rid of Federal mortgage subsidies and instead allow households to use money from their flex-benefit savings accounts to go toward down payments.

We would abolish the Department of Education. Instead, we would retain a research department, housed in the National Science Foundation, to evaluate educational effectiveness and to fund experimental pilot programs.

Uber $17 Billion?

The Seattle Times reports,

The funding positions the company at the front of a pack of Internet startups, at a valuation of about $17 billion, up from $3.5 billion in a financing last year.

Back in 1999, I started The Internet Bubble Monitor, a blog about that bubble. I tracked the absurd valuations of firms that had already gone public. This time around, it looks like the VCs want to front-run the public and bid firms up to absurd levels before anyone else can.

I would be curious to know what the investors think that the margins will be in the business in five years. Will Uber be able to collect $5 a ride? Fifty cents a ride? Maybe Facebook or Twitter will offer ride connections for free and hope to make a go of it on advertising revenue.

But, hey, I’m just an old man who doesn’t understand technology.

Larry Summers on Mian and Sufi

He writes,

They argue that, rather than failing banks, the key culprits in the financial crisis were overly indebted households. Resurrecting arguments that go back at least to Irving Fisher and that were emphasised by Richard Koo in considering Japan’s stagnation, Mian and Sufi highlight how harsh leverage and debt can be – for example, when the price of a house purchased with a 10 per cent downpayment goes down by 10 per cent, all of the owner’s equity is lost. They demonstrate powerfully that spending fell much more in parts of the country where house prices fell fastest and where the most mortgage debt was attached to homes. So their story of the crisis blames excessive mortgage lending, which first inflated bubbles in the housing market and then left households with unmanageable debt burdens. These burdens in turn led to spending reductions and created an adverse economic and financial spiral that ultimately led financial institutions to the brink.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen.

Summers points out that Mian and Sufi’s suggestion that we should have bailed out homeowners is probably not correct. I feel even more strongly than Summers does about this.

Suppose that we accept the balance-sheet recession story. Some comments and questions.

1. Vernon Smith is also a proponent.

2. What was the difference between the damage to consumer wealth caused by the dotcom crash of 2000 and by the housing crash of 2007-2008? Was it solely the fact that the latter had been financed more by borrowing?

3. Suppose that there had been no debt-fueled consumer boom in 2005-2006. What would there have been instead? A sluggish economy? A more sustainable boom?

4. Suppose that we take a PSST perspective. Then the period from the late 1990s to the present is one long, painful, still-unfinished adjustment to the Internet and factor-price equalization. We happened to have a sharp boom-bust cycle in home construction in the middle of it, but even during the boom we did not have four consecutive months of gains in employment over 200,000. Then, in 2008 we had a panic about large financial institutions, leading to a big increase in government intervention, which mostly consisted of transfers of resources to less-productive businesses, such as GM, Citigroup, and Solyndra.

The Clearest Inflation Indicator

Are prices really rising much faster than the official data show? Consider that the percent change from a year ago in the index of compensation per hour (part of the labor department data on productivity and costs) keeps running at about 2 percent. You have to believe one of the following:

1. This measure of the growth in labor costs is itself being distorted by sneaky government statisticians, and compensation is actually growing at a much higher pace.

2. With prices rising faster than official measures, real compensation costs are declining dramatically. In which case,

2a. Productivity is also declining dramatically, or

2b. Business profitability is soaring

3. The official measures of inflation are not hiding significant inflation.

My money is on (3).