My new essay on probability concludes:
Producers and consumers live in a world of non-repeatable events…Treating probabilities as if they were objective is a conceptual error. It is analogous to the conceptual errors that treat value as objective…We will be less likely to overstate the robustness of equilibrium and the precision of economic models if we stop conflating subjective degrees of conviction with verifiable scientific concepts of probability.
I argue that one cannot assign an objective probability to a non-repeatable event, such as “will hurricane Sandy cause flooding in the New York subway system?” I could have used “Will Barack Obama win re-election?” as my illustrative example, given that Nathan
Singer Silver famously assigned a very precise-sounding probability to that event.