The two participants who have done the best relating to voters, through the media, are the two former CEOs, Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina.
A priori, you would think that being a professional politician selects exactly for people who can do well in a televised national debate. Yet, from this limited number of data points, it is the CEOs who have the relevant skills.
Politicians make more speeches. CEO’s participate in more business meetings.
Think of making a speech as like playing rhythm guitar on a 1960s pop single. You play continuously, and your job is to give the song atmosphere through your use of volume, tempo, and tone.
Think of participating in a business meeting as like playing lead guitar. You come in for short “fills,” and your job is to move the song from where it has been to where it is going by hitting a few really striking notes at just the right time.
Because there are so many candidates at this point, Republican media events are more like business meetings than speech-making opportunities. So that would be my explanation. I think that the comparative advantage of the lead guitarists will be much less when there are only two or three candidates on stage.
If you look at presidential outcomes since the onset of television there’s a simple rule that usually holds true: the more charismatic candidate wins.
That would seem to hold true so far in the Republican primaries. Trump’s schtick has its own charm, and at the very least it’s more remarkable than the lot of other candidates can muster up right now…….most of whom are just establishment white guys.
It’s worth pointing out that the three candidates that are gaining traction in the republican camp are a woman, a black man, and Trump. The rest all blur together.