Look at it and Think About it

That is John Cochrane’s advice on the unit root issue.

A unit root means a random walk component. A random walk will eventually pass any upper and lower limit. Look at it [the unemployment rate]. That’s as stationary a series as you’re going to find in economics. (“Look at it” and “think about it” are the Cochrane unit root tests.)

Yes, unemployment like other stationary ratios in macro (consumption/GDP, hours/day, etc.) have important and frequently overlooked low-frequency movements. But they are far from random walks, and they like unemployment have a very large transitory component at business cycle frequencies. When unemployment is above 8%, it is a good bet that it will decline over the next 5 years.

1 thought on “Look at it and Think About it

  1. I always wondered how a bounded sequence could have a unit root but I was too embarrassed to ask. So how do I reconcile Cochrane’s point above with a 2014 Journal of Econometrics Paper called “Testing for unit roots in bounded time series” (without carefully reading the paper)?

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