Larry Summers on Piketty

Mark Thoma seems to have provided the first pointer, although others surely will follow.

Summers’ review is the most complete evisceration of Piketty’s economics that has been published to date. But Summers suggests that we sniff the rose, never mind the manure that lies underneath. He writes,

Even in terms of income ratios, the gaps that have opened up between, say, the top .1 percent and the remainder of the top 10 percent are far larger than those that have opened up between the top 10 percent and average income earners. Even if none of Piketty’s theories stands up, the establishment of this fact has transformed political discourse and is a Nobel Prize-worthy contribution.

This is reminiscent of Brad DeLong. It strikes me as intellectual charity driven by ideological sympathy. I encourage everyone reading this blog to do the opposite. Reserve your most charitable interpretations for those whose views disturb you, and adopt the most critical-thinking posture toward those whose views please you.

The bulk of Summers’ review consists of just this sort of critical thinking. Summers writes,

Piketty argues that the economic literature supports his assumption that returns diminish slowly (in technical parlance, that the elasticity of substitution is greater than 1), and so capital’s share rises with capital accumulation. But I think he misreads the literature by conflating gross and net returns to capital. It is plausible that as the capital stock grows, the increment of output produced declines slowly, but there can be no question that depreciation increases proportionally. And it is the return net of depreciation that is relevant for capital accumulation. I know of no study suggesting that measuring output in net terms, the elasticity of substitution is greater than 1, and I know of quite a few suggesting the contrary.

I have not seen this point about the confusion of gross and net return made by anyone else. By DeLong’s standards, that means we should dismiss Summers’ argument. But to my eye, it seems like a powerful criticism. [UPDATE: Oops! A commenter points out that Matt Rognlie had made the exact point about gross and net return.]

Remember the scandal over the Reinhart-Rogoff spreadsheet? This strikes me as considerably worse.

Summers also writes,

Rather than attributing the rising share of profits to the inexorable process of wealth accumulation, most economists would attribute both it and rising inequality to the working out of various forces associated with globalization and technological change.

As in the Smithian theory of inequality.

3 thoughts on “Larry Summers on Piketty

  1. Other nominal adjustments that would further temper an inexorable widening of the wealth gap come to mind: profligacy and “non productive” spending among the elite, as well as productive investment returns that increase consumption by others, charity and other spending on public goods (whether for the sake of society or vanity), inheritance splitting, inability of heirs to hit the same investment home runs their benefactors had (simple reversion to the mean), etc..

    Additional, to the extent to which the remaining gap reflects excess returns on risky r’s (think of the truly non-diversifiable, ideosynchractic risks so many of the 0.1% had to beat), one really wonders how much net rent remains for government to be compelled to do something about. And one also wonders, then, how much of the political discourse will be about how to redistribute rents and how much about minimizing them by ensuring the government does not serve as a vehicle for rent seeking.

  2. I haven’t read Piketty’s book yet (still on hold at the library), but based on the reviews it strikes me as a book that economists enjoy reading, but don’t ultimately agree with, but don’t want to say as much either due to fear of backlash or ideological sympathies (like Arnold said).

    On the layperson’s side, it seems to have come around at just the right time since it provides an intellectual justification for a style of politics that’s dear to many people’s hearts. The fact that its main argument boils down to a statement that’s easy to read and talk aboug (r > g) is all the better.

    I’m looking forward to reading it as I’m sure it provides a lot of excellent insight, but I’m going to guess that I’ll think his work is more useful as a diagnosis than a prescription.

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