Can we trust the social science of trust?

Kevin Vallier writes,

Strikingly, the U.S. is the only established democracy to see a major decline in social trust. In other nations the trend was in the opposite direction. From 1998 to 2014, social trust increased in Sweden from 56.5% to 67%, in Australia from 40% to 54%, and in Germany from 32% to 42%. Meanwhile, the U.S. is becoming more like Brazil, where trust is around 5%. What makes America unique?

. . .Growing up under polarized political institutions may lead young people to generalize from partisan distrust to social distrust. Americans are sorting themselves into social silos, seldom interacting with unlike-minded others, leading to less moderation and more radicalization. This may be due in part to social media, though recent research on the effect of social media has reached mixed conclusions on this question. But the effect is clear: In 2017, around 70% of Democrats said that Donald Trump voters couldn’t be trusted, and around 70% of Republicans said the same of Hillary Clinton voters.

I am skeptical of the quantitative, survey-based approach to this issue. Centrist political parties and establishment politicians have taken a big hit in many countries, not just in the U.S. It seems to me that we live in a Martin Gurri world, not a world in which America is the exception.

I am not sure that political dislike carries over into social distrust so much. If the best surgeon you can find supports the other party, how many people would pick a different surgeon?

8 thoughts on “Can we trust the social science of trust?

  1. No one agrees or knows what social trust even means so how can they measure whether it’s changing?

  2. If the best surgeon you can find supports the other party, how many people would pick a different surgeon?

    For high profile services, maybe not, for now. But in Silicon Valley or Hollywood today, being a visible supporter of the other party is career suicide. Increasingly, even being critical of the Woke flank is enough to trigger the wingnuts and pitchforks.

  3. If I knew my kids teacher had woke political/cultural believes, I would want them to have a different teacher of comparable quality if that was possible.

  4. Brazil has relatively high levels of unemployment, poverty, and crime. Lack of trust is welfare enhancing. A photo of a typical residence is worth a thousand words: https://www.realtor.com/international/br/sao-paulo-sao-paulo-120061078695/ Gates, walls, electric fence.
    With the campaign getting underway by the new crop of prosecutors and district attorneys and their enablers in the media to sanction burglary and property crime (see the recent announcements from the new Los Angeles district attorney) and hamstring police, USA homeowners would do well to take notes from Brazilians. One wonders how much trust the USA can really be said to have when it has more cctv cameras than even China. https://www.precisesecurity.com/articles/Top-10-Countries-by-Number-of-CCTV-Cameras

  5. But of course this is part of what’s causing the alienation. The Left loses little to nothing if it only picks universities, news media, books, art, music, lawyers, or tech products from left leaning to leftist outfits. The Right has a much bigger opportunity cost of doing so. By expanding its racial and cancel politics, the Left is destroying the living space for moderates of both parties who waver on Wokeness.

  6. “… how many people would pick a different surgeon?”

    You haven’t been following the COVID epidemic, have you.

  7. Hey there,

    I am an economist interested in evolutionary psychology and gender differences. Since March 2019, I have worked on a Thesis on Sexual Equality and Birth Rates that represents a paradigm shift in the way humanity understands sex and relationships. I recommend the introduction of NEW CONTROLS ON THE SEXUAL MARKET IN THE FORM OF A TOLL TO PROMISCUITY (Flower Power Tax euphemistically) + PROGRESSIVELY REDUCING THE PROPORTION OF MALES ON THE PLANET (Sexual Singularity) as a solution to many things. This last undertaking will be possible at a big scale soon thanks to a sex sorting method developed by Japanese biologists (1).

    (1) Scientists find easy way to separate male and female sperm. Daily Mail (2019).

    – Cheap and non-invasive technology initially conceived for animals that would consist of a cutaneous gel for application on the on the testicles of males. It works through a molecular process that slows down sperm with Y or X chromosome at convenience. The patent has not been approved yet –

    https://dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7353537/Scientists-develop-simple-way-manipulate-sex-offspring.html

    Since July 2019, I have expanded the whole thing on a series of emails mostly among Spanish and European institutions (all members 1 by 1 of the Congress and Senate in that country, along with those in the European Parliament and Commission). The chambers of Canada, Argentina, Australia and Norway also received the main documents later on, along with The White House, the United Nations and the OECD. My thesis has dramatic effects on the current narrative of liberal feminism independently of the potential reduction of the proportion of males in society. It shows that certain controls on sex are essential to keep a society united. I have also informed Russia, China and Muslim countries with public email addressses on their websites (SA, Qatar, Oman, Turkey & UAE), as well as the Vatican and Peru most recently.

    You can read an updated version of my revolutionary thesis on sexual equality and birth rates here. No need to download the file. Scroll down. You’ll find an extended introduction and summaries inside.

    https://www.academia.edu/44483022/Flower_Power_Tax_Academic_Supports_2020_

    One could say that, thanks to all this, I have emerged as the XXI century Messias, the one who takes humanity out of the post-truth cesspit it had fallen into and sets directions for improvement. My thesis and especially the more than likely upcoming reduction of the proportion of males on Earth involves a profound paradigm shift for the social sciences. I’ve been trying to publish my ideas on a book, but publishing companies are reluctant to collaborate. Many titles operating within the current paradigm (on feminism, political essays, even theology..) will become obsolete and they’ll lose money most likely. In either case, politicans are informed, polarization has been moderated in the haute spheres and humanity has a goal! Now you know. Stay safe.

  8. A Financial Reset with the Sexual Singularity?

    – I discussed this on Twitter, as a secondary idea that may be included in the book. I comment below that once the new situation with altered gender ratios is established, governments could decide on reducing world population drastically. This would be to make the presence of the species on the planet more sustainable. –

    “As commented previously in other tweets, my imagined Financial Reset would equilibrate, for example, the value of land everywhere, as well as that of commodities. Rich countries would see their net worths decrease in general, while the poor see them increase. The Sexual Singularity by itself, when applied everywhere, leads to a more egalitarian distribution of wealth across the whole planet because it makes all places safe. With a lower proportion of males in societies and a new global consciousness established around gender ratios, there will be less die-hard nationalism or religiosity among men presumably. That the planet is suddenly a safer place allows money and investment, now concentrated in rich paranoid countries, to circulate with more ease. I have suggested to speed up this process with a Financial Reset relatively soon into the Sexual Singularity, trusting the good will of world citizens. Earth will be 1 with digitalization and globalization anyway, and English the common language of international communication most likely. As observed in advance, the problem here, with present wealth distribution, is that the economic system is based on hyper-hyping rich countries as tourist & talent destinations with wild aggressive marketing techniques, and considering poor countries as insecure and of a lower status. The BLM movement seems to correctly appreciate that this is a consequence of old colonialism. They contend that there is toxic inertia of old power structures negatively and disproportionately affecting the poor.

    Besides, the current system is very pollutive, because it moves so many people up and down for work or vacation. I have argued that humanity would be better off going back to a more neighborhood type of lifestyle, and being connected long distance through the internet mostly. All of this is a “put your actions where your words are” for the left, ecologists and well-meaning Christians after all; the ones worried about the state of the world, subsidizing NGO’s and feeling communion with others. As also addressed previously, another consequence of the hypothetical Financial Reset would be the moderation of mass migrations. More people would be able to remain in their countries because they will have more value there. This gives scope to the demands of far-right extremism and helps in advancing the correction of skewed gender ratios in Western nations. Since most immigrants are young men, ratios there currently favor men disproportionately. China suffers from a similar situation, in this case due to the old one-child policy. The Financial Reset would imply, for example, that traveling becomes more expensive for people in currently rich countries and cheaper for the poor. Castes within each individual country will remain for the most part, but talking in general terms possibilities will be more equally distributed worldwide. Again, this would give scope to the claims of BLM activists and will happen anyway, but could be accelerated. I have also speculated with a drastic reduction of human populations to make the presence of our species on the planet more sustainable once the new global consciousness around gender ratios is established.”

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