A Fiery Analogy

Robert Shiller writes,

The reluctance to acknowledge the need for immediate intervention in a financial crisis is based on a school of economics that fails to account for the irrational exuberance that I have explored elsewhere, and that ignores the aggressive marketing and other realities of digital-age markets examined in Phishing for Phools. But adhering to an approach that overlooks these factors is akin to doing away with fire departments, on the grounds that without them people would be more careful – and so there would then be no fires.

Pointer from Mark Thoma.

There is a school of thought (I am not a member) that would instead compare the Fed to the 10-year-old boy who starts a fire and then claims to be a hero because he then calls the fire department to come in to save it. Similarly, this school would argue, the Fed’s expansionary policies caused the housing bubble, and now the Fed earns praise for saving the economy from the resulting crisis.

Indeed, in recent interviews, Shiller has warned that stock prices are too high and we could see a crash. He would say that this is because markets are irrational. As far as I know, he is not calling on the Fed to raise interest rates in order to try to stop what he might call another financial epidemic. Again, I am not of the school of thought that thinks that the Fed is responsible for the stock market boom. But I think that Shiller ought to engage with those who are of that school of thought.

Incidentally, I received a review copy of Phishing for Phools, by Shiller and fellow Nobel Laureate George Akerlof. My views of the financial crisis are informed by my knowledge of institutional characteristics and history of housing finance. Their views are not. I find that this is the case with many economists who have written on the crisis, but their book left me especially frustrated. UPDATE: Alex Tabarrok also reviewed the book negatively.

2 thoughts on “A Fiery Analogy

  1. Using strict interpretation, I would have to agree that the Fed is not responsible for the stock market boom.
    But to concede that point, strictly speaking, is to say that the Fed had little involvement in the recovery, despite numerous interventions to the contrary.

Comments are closed.