1. He points me to Andrey Mir.
To those lucky few, the commodification of Trump appeared to be a game-changer. Historically, there have been no such political events quite so beneficial to the media, except for revolutions and wars. The value of this occurrence is particularly poignant because it is taking place amid the closing scenes of the media industry tragedy.
Difficult to excerpt. Read the whole thing.
The leaders of both parties have weaponized anarchic mobs against their rivals—the Democrats, by tacitly encouraging and bailing out foundation-funded NGO staffers with secret identities and superhero-style Antifa outfits during the tolerated anti-Trump riots of Summer 2020, and now the squalid, defeated demagogue Donald Trump, unleashing his own costumed followers on the U.S. Capitol itself.
Many people referred to the U.S. Capitol riot as a Martin Gurri moment.
In terms of betting about how much coverage Mr. Trump receives a year from now, I am taking the “over.” The NYT and the WaPo have thrived in the market for Trump-phobia, and neither they nor their readers will be able to put that behind them.
Another random prediction: the most concrete result of the demoralizing end of the Trump Presidency will be the restoration of the SALT deduction.
Sorry, Arnold. Interesting ideas but they lack an appropriate context to make understand their implications. Let me copy a comment I left in reply to a comment by John Alcorn to your previous post:
John, I must presume you are young and are not familiar with what both politicians and intellectuals have been doing for a long time. My understanding of history (pre-1950) and personal experiences (post-1950) is that in all nation-states well over 2/3 of the politicians and an absolute majority of intellectuals have always been seeking the legitimate coercion power of the state (preferably by minimizing the size of the powerful coalition). It has always been a tough competition because too many are seeking that power. Once they grab power they attempt to maximize their personal benefit first by eliminating the competition and second by ruling ordinary people like Olson’s stationary bandit. Reliance on markets is often their default position when the economy collapses and exceptionally a priority when they believe they can let people free under their terms and watch.
It was quite different when our ancestors could discover new territories but since 1950 we have populated all our planet. Today it looks like my grandchildren will have to vote with flying feet to discover new territories outside our planet. Or to fight back.
Later I recommend John to read
https://victorygirlsblog.com/pelosi-proves-again-she-wants-to-wear-the-crown/
Arnold, I find it hilarious that Michael Lind is a Professor of Practice at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs. I always remember LBJ because he was the President when I arrived in the U.S. for the first time (late May 1967) and spent some time trying to understand his craziness (I thanked HH in 1969 for attempting to explain it in his post-defeat lectures at the UMinn).
Lind’s characterization of the January 6th protest as an assault on Congress makes clear how much biased he’s (he looks like a typical activist disguised as an intellectual). Years ago, I used to know well the UC-Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy at a time when it was supposed to top ten in the U.S. (I don’t know the situation today). I could never understand what they were expecting from their students but according to their professors’ feedback, it looked like they wanted their students to be activists.
Sorry EB, the assault on Congress really was an actual assault on Congress and police, not a legitimate protest and it was all captured on film.
I find it hilarious that you constantly get your alternative facts wrong. Oh well, back to the real point of name dropping all the VIP’S you met decades ago and complaining about how, for some mysterious reason, they never wanted to take your advise.
This assault on Congress left one policeman dead, dozens injured, much vandalism to public property, and it nearly succeeded in the kidnapping and possibly execution of congressional leaders and Mike Pence. It also exposed Trump’s rhetoric as a pro-police law and order guy as a transparently cynical pose.
Sorry, their too many rotten and corrupt democrats to waste time with one of their little puppets. I hope you don’t have to make too much noise to qualify for one of Biden checks.
Arnold, this comment may be appropriate for your previous post but let me post it here. I strongly recommend reading this column
https://www.elmercurio.com/blogs/2021/01/17/85090/El-vacunazo.aspx
It’s in Spanish but you can challenge any relative or friend who claims to know Spanish well to read it to you. The author, Sergio Urzúa, is a young UChicago PhD in Economics and an assistant professor at the U Maryland College Park (see http://econweb.umd.edu/~urzua/ ).
The column title “Vacunazo” refers to an old Argentinian custom of labelling disasters by modifying the noun with -azo (for example, in 1982 when a Harvard PhD in Economics started the first hyperinflation, we called it “Cavallazo” because of his last name, Cavallo). In Argentina, we have a large collection of nouns modified with -azo.
Urzúa, like many other Chileans, is worried about a big failure in the government’s vaccination plan. And remember that Chile’s President, my former colleague and friend, got his PhD in Economics at Harvard and in the early 1970s was a classmate of Cavallo.
NOTE: I was told that it’s difficult to access the text because of the publisher’s restrictions. This is a copy
La producción de vacunas contra el covid-19 se acelera en el planeta. Solo entre AstraZeneca, Pfizer y Moderna se esperan 5.300 millones de dosis el 2021. Sin embargo, no solo la disponibilidad de los codiciados frasquitos ha dado dolores de cabeza a los países. La logística tras la vacunación también ha sido un problema.
En EE.UU., por ejemplo, el plan inicial de la administración Trump era vacunar a 20 millones de personas antes del 31 de diciembre. Las dosis estaban, pero en la fecha estipulada solo 2 millones habían recibido un pinchazo. Y el atraso no paró. Aun cuando hace semanas existe holgura en el número de dosis listas para ser utilizadas, al cerrar esta columna solo un 3,5% de la población ha recibido algún tipo de inmunización. ¿Un caso aislado? No. Guardando diferencias, se repite en Francia (0,6%), Alemania (1,2%) y España (1,6%). El Reino Unido lo hace un poco mejor (5,4%), pero lejos de lo necesario para contener el contagio.
Entonces, si no es la escasez de dosis, ¿qué explica la lentitud? Se pueden identificar al menos cuatro factores. Primero, la logística en torno a la inyección. Esta no envuelve solo una rápida inoculación, sino que un proceso de varios minutos para descartar posibles efectos secundarios.
Segundo, la utilización de hospitales y consultorios aún colapsados por los contagios como centros de vacunación. Su personal, exhausto por meses de trabajo sin respiro, difícilmente puede acelerar el proceso.
Tercero, las dificultades del Estado para verificar quién califica para ser vacunado en cada etapa. ¿Quiénes son trabajadores esenciales? ¿Cómo confirmar su condición? ¿Cómo identificar y rechazar a los colados? Un proceso que depende de datos que el Estado no tiene a disposición.
Cuarto, que miembros de los grupos prioritarios pueden optar por no vacunarse. En algunos condados de California, por ejemplo, 50% de los trabajadores de la salud decidieron no hacerlo. Dar con ellos y conocer tal decisión implica tiempo y esfuerzos dilapidados. ¿Pasará en Chile? Un estudio de 2020 indicó que apenas un 61% de encuestados se inyectaría. ¿Y si se da el pinchazo al primero que llegue sin distinción? Colas y caos si no hay una milimétrica preparación.
Ahora, ¿se puede evitar el atraso? Sí, Israel es un caso interesante. Con recursos (pagaron caro por dosis), innovación (se vacuna en estadios), tecnología (mucho dato) y gracias a un sistema que coordina a Estado y privados, un 25% de su población ha recibido alguna inmunización.
Las esperanzas sobre el proceso que se inicia son inmensas. A mayor velocidad, más rápida la recuperación. En Chile, el Gobierno apuesta por vacunar a 5 millones de personas (más de 25% de población) antes del 31 de marzo del 2021. Para esto, desde hoy y hasta entonces, en promedio 70 mil personas al día deberán recibir un pinchazo en el brazo. ¿Será realista? Dadas las falencias del Estado, ojalá el esfuerzo cuente con el apoyo privado. Como sea, aseguradas las dosis, todo dependerá de la quirúrgica implementación de un masivo plan de vacunación que, por el bien del país, no puede mutar en un gigantesco “vacunazo”.
FWIW, machine translated:
The production of vaccines against covid-19 is accelerating on the planet. Between AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna alone, 5.3 billion doses are expected in 2021. However, it is not only the availability of the coveted bottles that has given countries headaches. Post-vaccination logistics have also been a problem.
In the US, for example, the Trump administration’s initial plan was to vaccinate 20 million people by December 31. The doses were there, but by the stipulated date only 2 million had received a puncture. And the delay did not stop. Even though for weeks there has been a slack in the number of doses ready to be used, when closing this column, only 3.5% of the population has received some type of immunization. An isolated case? No. Keeping differences, it is repeated in France (0.6%), Germany (1.2%) and Spain (1.6%). The UK does slightly better (5.4%), but far from what is necessary to contain the contagion.
So if it’s not the dose shortage, what explains the slowness? At least four factors can be identified. First, the logistics around the injection. This involves not only a quick inoculation, but a process of several minutes to rule out possible side effects.
Second, the use of hospitals and clinics still collapsed by infections as vaccination centers. Your staff, exhausted from months of work without respite, can hardly speed up the process.
Third, the difficulties of the State to verify who qualifies to be vaccinated at each stage. Who are essential workers? How to confirm your condition? How to identify and reject the casts? A process that depends on data that the State does not have at its disposal.
Fourth, which members of priority groups can choose not to be vaccinated. In some California counties, for example, 50% of healthcare workers chose not to. Finding them and knowing such a decision requires wasted time and effort. Will it happen in Chile? A 2020 study indicated that only 61% of respondents would inject. And if the puncture is given to the first one who arrives without distinction? Queues and chaos if there is no millimeter preparation.
Now, can delay be avoided? Yes, Israel is an interesting case. With resources (they paid a high price per dose), innovation (they are vaccinated in stages), technology (a lot of data) and thanks to a system that coordinates the State and private parties, 25% of its population has received some immunization.
The hopes for the process that is beginning are immense. The higher the speed, the faster the recovery. In Chile, the Government is committed to vaccinating 5 million people (more than 25% of the population) before March 31, 2021. For this, from today until then, an average of 70 thousand people a day should receive a puncture in arm. Will it be realistic? Given the shortcomings of the state, hopefully the effort will have private support. Anyway, the doses assured, everything will depend on the surgical implementation of a massive vaccination plan that, for the good of the country, cannot mutate into a gigantic “vaccination”.
1. The Washington Post digital subscriptions figure might be inflated by Amazon’s policy of putting the Washington Post on their e-reader products. Like the junk advertising that also comes with a kindle or fire, the Washington Post can’t be deleted from the product. Another reason I am very happy to have moved to Kobo.
We could probably use a post dedicated to predictions of concrete consequences of the election result. I’ll mostly hold back unless you want to do that, but I’ll add a few right here that might be more consequential than SALT deductions (which are going to offset by higher taxes on mostly the same households anyway).
Also keep in mind that a lot of important and consequential things happened in the Trump admin that flew under the now high emotional threshold for agitating controversy required for media coverage, and their reversal will most likely also fly below that radar or perhaps be trumpeted (heh), celebrated, and glorified during slow news weeks as “Trump Reversed!” news. It will be interesting to see the future chart of frequency of use of the word “Trump”.
Anyway, here are two big things.
1. Amnesty and quick and easy naturalization for 15-20 million current “irregularly present” immigrants without permanent resident status. Many could be voting in 2024, and that will be a big deal. Also, ICE may well get de facto ‘abolition lite’ as a result, but frankly it would be no great loss.
2. The reputation of, and trust in, the FBI will take a deservedly permanent hit, especially with conservatives, and the bureau will recover politically by completing the flipping process, going woke, and rebranding themselves as wokeness and progressivism enforcers and persecutors of various kinds of bad white citizens and disfavored industries, especially under reinvigorated “domestic terrorism” authorities.
Many arguments have been made on both sides for USG’s weird scheme of decentralized and redundant allocation of responsibilities and authorities, such that you usually have a few different independent agencies all potentially tackling the same underlying activities but potentially (and often actually) in an uncoordinated, counterproductive, and politically contradictory fashion. Sometimes the competition is a net positive, but usually it’s not. This is why there is such a temptation to have “Czars” or single points of subject matter expertise and coordination at the White House level, because interagency and deputies committee meetings aren’t enough to get it done without an actual human being leader who has the (mostly exclusive, though not entirely) ear of the big boss.
Remember back in the financial crisis when people made the point that certain finance matters were in overlapping purview between the FTC, CFTC, FDIC, SEC, Freddie and Fannie (effectively), the Fed, Treasury (and their FINCEN), and FDIC? Did I even list them all?
Well, it’s like that for all matters. In that case there was the question of regulatory arbitrage and finding the most lenient agency to bless off on the activity.
But a more general big downside is that it creates a bad incentive to abuse discretion of prioritization, and for agencies to lose focus on their normal mission, drop the core stuff unpopular with elites and opinion-makers, and go after fringe or favored stuff. This is especially true when some matter becomes politically hot or sexy or likely to get one a heroic, glowing report in the media, in which case agencies will bend over backwards and stretch the legal interpretation of their authorizing statutes into the thinnest and most tenuous of threads to try to jump on the bandwagon of some popular enforcement effort.
Do they need some kind of “””intelligence””” report or analysis as “””evidence””” to justify such? Such evidence and reports and “professional judgments” are easy to manufacture, and are all the time, just as easily as it is to ignore or smother any actual threats the politicians don’t want to deal with.
The most popular thing to enforce is usually something about inappropriate sexual activity involving minors. It doesn’t matter what your agency does or is supposed to do: if you can say that your have some role to play in stopping these arch-villains, it is going to distort your motivations, and you are going to divert lots of focus and resources to those off-mission efforts.
And that is now going to happen with the various Wokegorical Imperatives, which will involve a Great Involution of attention from many officially outward-facing entities towards these domestic political matters.
But the FBI in particular, being the federal state’s “Internal Security” enforcement arm, will be at the heart of that change and cannot resist it after what happened with Trump, and it will flip the valence of who likes and hates them for the long term. That will also be a big deal in the long run.
SALT was a contributing factor to the overall progressiveness of the Trump tax cuts. Eliminating the SALT deduction limits combined with Biden’s plans to increase corporate income tax results the incidence of which falls primarily upon workers can safely be predicted to increase inequality and to impoverish the working class. But that is the beauty of democracy, the people of the USA will get what they deserve good and hard.
You rob banks because that’s where the money is. Same goes for taxes. The government is going to get it from the people who have it, and squeeze them for what they’re worth, one way or another. Particular deductions or loopholes will be a windfall benefit or liability hike to some particular people in the short run, but they don’t really matter in the long run as tax and deficit rates are adjusted as required to stay just above the loomimg fiscal crisis level, that is, the minimum grasp required to have the wolf by the ears.
And if we miscalculate and let the wolf go, well, he eats us, and the details of any particular tax or deduction will not be deemed to matter much in retrospect.
Biden is going to increase taxes on the people getting the biggest SALT deductions, so while it may move things around between homeowners and renters in that bracket it won’t necessarily be a huge impact. It will probably move money around within states though (favoring high tax states).
On the margin homeowners in blue states making low six figures might do better under combination SALT repeal + higher marginal tax rates on mid six figure and up earners, but it’s all kind of chump change. The real question is just what income all the new benefits Biden wants will start to phase out and how quick.
I suppose I will be marginally better off in a non SALT world, in part because the huge asset I already own just got more valuable, but if I was trying to buy a house post SALT I would get nothing. Home values tend to adjust to things like SALT and interest rates to vacuum up whatever marginal dollar the prime working age earner has to spare for housing payments. Interest rates are low, but prices are way up, so the payments end up being basically the same.
Biden won’t be able to actually get anyone who’s an illegal in 2021 voting in 2024. It’s not totally impossible but it would require some sort of new, fast-track-to-citizenship permanent visa class — unlikely. Right now you have to wait five years after being issued a green card to apply for citizenship.
Relevant for 2024 would be a push for citizenship for as many eligible green card holders as possible — there are 9 million of them, and looking at Table 5 here then if you can get enough of them naturalized and voting Dem in 2024 it makes flipping Florida and possibly Texas feasible.
That being said I think it’s a fair assumption that the goal is to get current illegals eligible to vote in 2028. That means green card in the next two years, then citizenship by 2027. The proposed green-card-to-citizen campaign will serve as a test run for this latter scheme.
“It’s not totally impossible but it would require some sort of new, fast-track-to-citizenship permanent visa class — unlikely. Right now you have to wait five years after being issued a green card to apply for citizenship.”
Why unlikely? The Democrats have control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency and can make this happen right away by mere vote even without any help from the “it ain’t over ’til the alien wins” courts, and by executive order and regulatory publication (for instance, counting years present for certain amensteed individuals – especially ‘childhood arrivals’ – for the purposes of eligibility for naturalization) even without a vote, though with a little help from the courts, which they would certainly get.
They have an irresistibly strong temptation to do so, there is no reason to imagine there is some qualm or stumbling block that would force them to resist it. And they have 45 months to get it done, which is not just *plenty* of time to accomplish the goal, but plenty of time to assess whether they are on track to accomplish their goals, and to adjust throttle as required.
The GOP could *try* to filibuster (and probably have to do it over and over again while the media dumps all over them), but there are already far too many GOP senators already on the record as being more-or-less on board with the plan, and who don’t want to go on record to their open borders big donors as contributing to the filibuster.
It is likely enough that I’m willing to bet on in, in terms of active measures by the Biden-Harris administration of this nature creating at least four million more voters above baseline trend by the 2024 election, which is more than necessary to guarantee a win.
Biden can get four million new voters by 2024 easily just with current green card holders (9 million are eligible for citizenship right now). Maybe I’m underestimating how aggressively the Dems will legislate but illegals -> green cards to get registered voters by 2028 and green cards -> register voters by 2024 to get a few million more by then just seems like the path of least resistance.
According to David Sirota, repealing the SALT deduction would cost $136 billion just in the next two years….
and it would be wildly tilted toward the wealthiest Americans, per the Tax Policy Center….
“TPC estimates that the bottom half of the income distribution would effectively receive no tax benefit from the change, largely since very few would itemize even with the full SALT deduction. But high-income households would do very well. The highest-income 1 percent (those making $819,000 or more) would receive an average tax cut about $33,000, or 1.9 percent of their after-tax income. They’d receive about 57 percent of the benefits of temporarily repealing the SALT deduction cap.
The top 0.1 percent of households would get an average annual tax cut of nearly $144,000, or 1.8 percent of after-tax income. Overall, the top 0.1 percent would get about one-quarter of the benefits of the measure.”
They could easily just raise the SALT deduction to the same size as the standard deduction and appease most of their base while not costing as much.
I am personally hoping they get the SALT deduction in for this year’s taxes, any chance of that? Maybe they can make it retro-active to last year as well… The opposite of what the Democratic party says they stand for, and probably a negative for the country if you care about deficits, but it benefits me.
In lieu of a tax rebate, please accept this card worth $1400.
Perhaps a brief look at this from an economic perspective, you know, just as a change of pace?
We are against a regulatory society, and for free speech. But, with the removal of almost all friction from communication, it turns out that the marginal market choices turn us towards use of outrage and disinformation as a marketing and political tools that work cheaply.
Setting aside all the normal pet peeves, can we agree that we have a market failure here? The Andy Mir story illustrates that marginal economic incentives followed rationally by a subset of the media became a reverb amplifier for Trumpism and Anti-Trumpism. You can argue that other factors were involved, but I think the premise makes sense.
Human failure is not market failure. If people want to read conspiracy theories, they get published. If people want to eat Bugles, Bugles will be for sale.
If people want to get an experimental vaccine for a rampaging disease that has already killed 1 out of 1000 of their neighbors…forget it, we can’t allow that to be sold. Have some Bugles.
The goal of the Trump team on denying the SALT deduction was certainly not tax fairness or even revenue.
The goal was to make state taxes more painful in the wealthier blue states like CA, NJ, Mass, and New York.
The hope was that this would lead cutbacks in generous state salaries and benefits.
Thus far I do not see that this goal has been realized. State budgets are as bloated as ever.
However, it has only been a couple of years since this passed, so maybe it is too early to tell.
Not many people leave an area because the taxes are high. Leaving a state usually means:
1) Leaving ones job
2) Leaving ones family/friends
3) Uprooting children
4) Incurring the expenses involved in moving
Retirees do it because they often don’t have jobs to leave and they are preparing to downsize anyway. Kids are already out of the house.
The number of prime age working adults that are going to look at say a 6% state tax rate and decide to go through all that to save 6% in Florida isn’t many.
Copy/paste this logic into your comments from yesterday and then you’ll understand why Texas isn’t going to become a Northern Virginia anytime soon. Also, have a look at google maps to see how completely isolated Austin is from any surrounding state borders. 3+ hours south of our home in North Texas.
Dude, it’s just math. If by “anytime soon” you mean like 5-10 years who knows. Bush was trouncing Kerry in VA in 2004 by the same margin Trump beat Biden in Texas this year. Dems won every election since then in VA, and people didn’t even bother considering it a swing state the last few times around.
Demographics is relentless. I plan to be alive another 40 years, for my kids to be alive another 80, and my grandkids to be alive longer still. That’s the kind of timeline I care about. The only thing that matters at all on a timeline like that is demographics.
The simple point is that moving to Texas doesn’t really solve the problem, just like moving to VA in 2000 didn’t solve the problem. Everyone is subject to the same unstoppable force, it’s just a question of being a decade or so behind or not.
“Dude, it’s just math.”
Wassup dude? I did done the math. Moving from California to Texas saved us $30k per year on a net basis. And, we’ve got no concerns in moving every decade or so…already have a plan b, c and d up our sleeves in case we need it.
I have two close relatives who live in CA, and pay very high property taxes (which of course effectively got higher under the Trump denial of SALT deductions).
They are extremely left. The higher taxes have added to their dislike of Trump. The taxes have not made them resentful of Gov Newsom and the California Democrats, which is what the Republicans wanted to happen.
“They are extremely left. The higher taxes have added to their dislike of Trump.”
Let’s be honest: pre-SALT reforms, their dislike of Trump was probably like 9.99 on a scale of 10. Post-SALT reforms, their dislike of Trump was probably like 9.999. Nothing to see here.
The folks in California love their government even with their fully preventable forest fires, brown outs and lockdowns. My conservative parents in the SF Bay Area are also drinking the kool aid. First world economy with third world politics and infrastructure. Just wait for it to get the copy/paste treatment to the rest of the U.S. under the Biden administration.
There must be a lot of blue state libertarians on this blog…
Your wallet is about to get picked California style and you’re focusing your attention on getting your SALT deductions re-instated?
SALT? Really? We talking about SALT?
https://youtu.be/tknXRyUEJtU
Full disclosure: lived in California for 40+ years. Didn’t really care about SALT back then since it was mostly eaten up by the AMT anyways.
“Make America California Again”
“California is emerging as the de facto policy think tank of the Biden-Harris administration and of a Congress soon to be under Democratic control.“
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-01-17/make-america-california-again-how-biden-will-try
Please open your wallet and prepare to watch it get emptied.
In the meantime, we talking about SALT? SALT?
Trump’s hands aren’t perfectly clean, but almost all of the endorsement, justification, celebration, and strategic usage of weaponized mobs is on the political left.
Painting this as a “both-sides” issue is not reasonable.
It’s possible that you may have missed it, so here is an update: A QAnon shaman dressed in coyote skins attempted a coup of our government along with dozens of other co-conspirators. Armed with a horned hat, a spear and impeccable logic, he came within a few feet of ending democracy as we know it. So please stop drawing parallels to the mostly peaceful protests from over the spring/summer.
https://youtu.be/0HER29R2Tio