Europe’s most rapidly growing family type is the one-person household: the home not only child-free, but partner- and relative-free as well. In Western Europe, nearly one home in three (32%) is already a one-person unit, while in autonomy-prizing Denmark the number exceeds 45%. The rise of the one-person home coincides with population aging. But it is not primarily driven by the graying of European society, at least thus far: Over twice as many Danes under 65 are living alone as those over 65.
Pointer from Tyler Cowen. The entire essay is recommended.
My impression of the United States is that we have two marital cultures. One culture, more prevalent among the affluent, is traditional marriage, delayed and with fewer children, with reasonably low divorce rates. The other culture, more prevalent among the less-than-affluent, is child-bearing outside of marriage, with a low proportion of long-lasting marriages.
Eberstadt’s global tour makes it difficult to claim that a single factor, such as affluence or local culture or the welfare state, is causing the decline in traditional marriage.
One thought I have is that the traditional family is highly congruent with an agricultural society. Perhaps we are seeing a sort of delayed response to industrialization and urbanization.
It seems to me that there are actually four marital cultures, or another dimension besides just the affluent/less-affluent divide you note, at least with respect to fertility.
That is: affluent-religious, affluent secular, less-affluent-religious, and less-affluent-secular.
I’m not sure if religiosity has an ameliorative effect on some of the social ills associated with less-affluent families, but I believe it does have a positive impact on the fertility rates of affluent families.
I don’t think Eberstadt’s data on the Middle East counters this, as what’s going on there is probably a secularizing trend relative to the norm there.