Taking Gains as Leisure

The BLS’ Shawn Sprague writes,

workers in the U.S. business sector worked virtually the same number of hours in 2013 as they had in 1998—approximately 194 billion labor hours.1 What this means is that there was ultimately no growth at all in the number of hours worked over this 15-year period, despite the fact that the U.S population gained over 40 million people during that time, and despite the fact that there were thousands of new businesses established during that time.

And given this lack of growth in labor hours, it is perhaps even more striking that American businesses still managed to produce 42 percent—or $3.5 trillion—more output in 2013 than they had in 1998, even after adjusting for inflation.

Pointer from Timothy Taylor.

Some comments:

1. The gains in real well-being can be vastly under-estimated or over-estimated, depending on how well one adjusts for inflation and other factors, like un-measured consumers’ surplus and the greater variety of goods and services to choose from. My own view is that the gains are somewhat under-estimated.

2. There has been a large increase in leisure. How much of this is a welfare gain, though? My hypothesis is that many more people would work if government policy did not create so many disincentives to supply and demand labor. Just look at Social Security, with its huge payroll-tax disincentive for young people to work and its large subsidy to older people to consume leisure. If my hypothesis is right, then reducing these disincentives would lead to a lot more market work and a slower growth rate in leisure.

3. What accounts for the increase in leisure since 1998? The biggest factor is probably demographics, as many Baby Boomers have gone from prime working years to retirement years. Next, I point to factor-price equalization and to an increase in the wedge between compensation and take-home pay represented by health insurance costs. For the most recent five years, give some weight to Casey Mulligan’s narrative. A lot of economists would point to aggregate demand, but I no longer respect that concept.

2 thoughts on “Taking Gains as Leisure

  1. This must be why French labor participation is so low NOT. We probably choose leisure because taxes are so low.

  2. A couple years ago there was that WSJ article talking about how much it costs a firm to employ someone due to costs added by regulation. I’d like to see that concept fully studied.

    Maybe the psst fed should target employment cost!

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