1. David Benatia and others write,
We found a nationwide 1.9 percent infection rate in early April, which is similar to the estimated prevalence in Austria (1.1%), Denmark (1.1%), and the United Kingdom (2.7%) as of March 28. Meanwhile, Germany’s 0.7% infection rate would rank in the lowest tercile of prevalence among U.S. states. The highest rates of infection in New York (8.5%), New Jersey (7.6%), and Louisiana (6.7%) are still lower than the estimated rates in Italy (9.8%) and Spain (15%).
Pointer from John Alcorn.
As I understand it, their approach is to look at how the change in reported cases per capita changes as you change the number of tests per capita over a short time period. That makes sense to me. The
Their results imply a total number infected as of early April of about 6 million, which is lower than the outlandish figures some have proposed but much higher than the reported cases at that time.
The number of nursing homes publicly reporting cases of covid-19 has doubled in the past week, with more than 1 in 6 facilities nationwide now acknowledging infections among residents or staff, a Washington Post analysis of state and federal data found.
…In five states – Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Georgia and New Jersey – the virus has struck a majority of nursing homes, the data shows. In New Jersey, second only to New York in total number of confirmed coronavirus cases, health officials have reported infections at 80 percent of the state’s homes.
Doubling the number of nursing homes hit in the last week would lead me to expect a dramatic increase in deaths a few weeks from now. I am cynical enough to predict that the media will attribute these deaths to “re-opening the economy.”
I really wish that deaths were consistently reported by age category, rather than as aggregate figures. My point is not to suggest that deaths of the elderly do not matter. My point is that our prevention strategy ought to be aligned with where the risks lie, rather than talking about “the” infection fatality rate.
3. From Nature,
parts of the world that do not have a policy of universal BCG vaccination, such as Italy and the USA, have experienced higher mortality associated with COVID-19 than places with long-standing universal BCG vaccination policies, such as South Korea and Japan
This has also been proposed as an explanation for why death rates are lower in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe.
There is also the issue that in some nursing homes mass deaths are being hidden from the public.
But none that you can name, of course.
“I am cynical enough to predict that the media will attribute these deaths to ‘re-opening the economy.'” Your cynicism distracts from your objectivity. We know your belief, “I don’t think lockdowns are saving lives.” You might be right. You also might be wrong. I wish you would look at the data and if arguments are made that lockdowns do save lives, you’d consider them without cynicism. You concluded, “the worst is over” when the U.S. had 9,700 deaths. You were wrong. Please stay objective. If you bias your analysis you are like the media. The media does it to get ‘clicks’ which is how they make money. I don’t know why you’d do it.
Because he’s human, just like the rest of us.
I’m glad that Arnold tells us when he’s being emotional. Everyone has biases. Everyone thinks the world works in certain ways. Everyone would like some things to be true and some things to be false.
Anyone who thinks they are an impartial truth-machine is either a liar or a fool.
“Your cynicism distracts from your objectivity.”
Probably not. The operative narrative in the media is that we unequivocally need the lockdowns that we have, despite any real evidence to support such claims. Anything that buttresses this claim will be latched onto almost immediately.
“I really wish that deaths were consistently reported by age category, rather than as aggregate figures. My point is not to suggest that deaths of the elderly do not matter. My point is that our prevention strategy ought to be aligned with where the risks lie, rather than talking about “the” infection fatality rate.”
Precisely. I have to drill down daily on the death stats in my county to get the full context:
60+ and/or underlying health conditions = please look out for yourself!
All others = not much to see here. Looks like a very severe flu season.
State of Washington DOH: 34% of “known cases” have been of over 60’s. 90% of deaths have been of over 60. (Per Seattle Times)
Your 3DDR, I hypothesize, is largely measuring transmission within the geriatric care sector.