Amar Bhide and Edmund Phelps on the Fed

Their op-ed is a grab bag. For example,

It is doubtful, though, that quantitative easing boosted either wealth or confidence. The late University of Chicago economist Lloyd Metzler argued persuasively years ago that a central-bank purchase, in putting the price level onto a higher path, soon lowers the real value of household wealth—by roughly the amount of the purchase, in his analysis. (People swap bonds for money, then inflation occurs, until the real value of money holdings is back to where it was.)

What I think this refers to is the idea that when the government prints money, it collects seignorage, also known as the “inflation tax.” The implication is that quantitative easing amounts to nothing other than a tax increase.

Later, they write,

Households have maintained their strong propensity to consume, persuaded that their retirement incomes will be topped up with entitlements. But consumer-goods production—giant machines needing only a guard and a dog, as some wag put it—is generally not labor-intensive enough to provide high employment at normal wages. A central bank’s monetary policy, no matter how ambitious, cannot solve this structural problem.

In my PSST words, the Fed cannot create patterns of sustainable specialization and trade.

Still later, they write,

What we do need from the Fed is reform of the ways banks are regulated and supervised. Tough, on-the-ground examination of individual banks not only helps keep them solvent, such scrutiny can also prevent out-of-control money growth without suppressing productive lending. Similarly, rules that discourage banks from relying on yield-chasing hot money will limit the runs and panics the Fed has to fight.

This is a bit like my argument for principles-based regulation. The problem with letter-of-the-law regulations, like risk-based capital, is that they set the regulator up to be gamed. You invite financial wizards to come up with ways to dress up high-risk portfolios in low-risk clothing. Principles-based regulation, along with “on-the-ground examination,” means that you do not just sit back and watch helplessly while the financial wizards run circles around you.