Aaron Ross Powell on the X

He emails

gotta say, I think you’re completely misreading Apple’s motives for releasing the iPhone X, and so misreading their strategy for the device.

The iPhone X is out now, instead of seeing similar features roll out in a year or two in the “regular” iPhone, because (a) Apple wanted to release something special for the 10th anniversary and (b) they wanted to put out a device that was a look ahead in terms of features, while marketed as premium, in part because they are supply constrained on components (in particular, the OLED screens). Apple has said it expects it’ll be well into 2018 before they can meet demand for the iPhone X. By giving it a premium price, they’re reducing demand, while still netting a profit, and they’re less likely to run into the bad press of the phone taking months to ship to new customers. Tim Cook cares, above all else, for customer satisfaction. (Which is why he mentions their “customer sat” numbers in nearly every keynote.)

There are also plenty of perfectly rational reasons to purchase an iPhone X. It has the same size screen as an 8 Plus, while having a form factor closer to a regular 8. That’s a big difference. It has a considerably better screen—and a considerably better screen than any Android phone on the market. It sports a better camera, with optical image stabilization on both lenses, instead of just one like on the iPhone 8 Plus. It has FaceID. To a lot of people, these are likely worth a $300 premium. (I’d also predict that Apple’s profit on the iPhone 8 is about the same as the iPhone X, or even slightly higher, given the increased cost of the cutting edge components in the X. At any rate, it’s highly unlikely Apple is “price gouging.”)

As to old devices, the “Apple is forcing us to upgrade” refrain is common, but there’s never been any evidence to support it. iOS 11, released today, supports devices all the way back to the iPhone 5s, released in 2013. And Apple will never pull something like “You can only get your backups if you buy a faster phone.” You might need a new phone to run the latest OS, of course, but they won’t turn off iCloud access in prior OS versions. It’s not how they roll—and they’ve certainly never pulled anything like that in the past.

I probably should not have taken such an uncharitable view of Apple’s motives. It’s the motives of Apple’s consumers that I find suspect.

If your current phone is working, then buying the X means that you think that at the margin a better screen and a better camera are worth a thousand bucks. Is that the best use one can make of a thousand dollars?

If Aaron is right that Apple is facing supply challenges, then the price should come down when the supply situation improves. To me, that makes buying the X now even less rational.

7 thoughts on “Aaron Ross Powell on the X

  1. Apple offers a $1000 transistor radio that costs $30 a month for the signal.

    “King” Gillette nods approvingly.

    ( I have a Windows phone, the phone for people who really don’t want a smart phone. I think it was $125 bought outright. Ill use it for one-off browing, GPS nav, texting and as a … phone ).

  2. “…at the margin a better screen and a better camera are worth a thousand bucks”

    Shouldn’t we be looking at the difference between the price of the iPhone X and the model without the better screen and the better camera, rather than the total price of the X? Assuming Powell’s numbers are correct, and they seem to be consistent with prices at the Apple website, it’s not a question of “worth a thousand bucks”, but “worth $300”.

  3. If your current phone is working, then buying the X means that you think that at the margin a better screen and a better camera are worth a thousand bucks. Is that the best use one can make of a thousand dollars?

    Phones’ batteries last 2–3 years before their capacities noticeably drop. At that point you can spend a couple hundred dollars to get the battery replaced by someone who has that expertise, or you can just spend that money on a new phone. Remember that, especially for iPhones, there’s a healthy second-hand market, so you can sell your old phone on Craigslist and partially recoup the cost.

    As such, there’s a lot of financial incentive to get a new one anyway after a couple years are up, and so the question for people who buy new phones is whether to get something that’s $900 or so (the baseline iPhone 8, after taxes and fees and maybe a case) or $1300 (a top-end iPhone X after taxes, fees, and maybe a case).

    That extra money gets you a Plus-sized screen in a phone only slightly larger than the non-Plus models. If you do a lot of reading on your hand-held pocket computer, that’ll help. Also, unlike the Plus models, the screen isn’t rendered with @3x assets and then shrunk down to a 1080p screen; it’s not shrinking anything down at all. This sounds like a nice bonus if presbyopia hasn’t set in yet.

    [even more soporific technical comparison elided, including relative merits of Touch ID vs. Face ID]

    If the new features look appealing to you, you can have a two-years-in-the-future phone now instead of in two years, all for only a marginal price increase.

  4. I would like to know how many iPhone X buyers have a monthly salary that can really take the 1000 dollars and they have no debt (credit card or student loan). My fear is that there is a certain overlap.

    In the case there is I concur with your statement.

  5. Since the iPhone is presumably just a fancy TV, then I guess it makes sense for people to fixate on screen size.

  6. it has a considerably better screen—and a considerably better screen than any Android phone on the market.

    This is pure Apple fanboy nonsense. Samsung manufactures the OLED screen. Android phones have had OLED screens for years. There is no indication that the iPhoneX has a better screen than Samsung Galaxy S8, S8+ Note8 and their edge-to-edge screens. In fact, with the “notch” it is likely to be wasting a fair bit of that edge to edge screen.

    “With the iPhone X, Apple has also boosted resolution and pixel density, from 1,334 x 750 (326 pixels per inch) on the iPhone 8 and 1,920 x 1,080 (401 pixels per inch), to a much sharper 2,436 x 1,125 (458 pixels per inch). That finally puts the iPhone in line with flagship – and even some mid-range – Android phones, which have had much sharper screens than the iPhone for several years. ”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/features/iphone-x-vs-samsung-s8-features-note-8-android-years-ahead-ios-11-a7947206.html

  7. I’ve come to realize that many of us old-timers don’t get the cell-phone lifestyle.

    Here is what they see: the means to stay in active, continuous communication with your friends and family, cool games, great deals, and breaking news.

    Here is what we see: a family sits down near us in a restaurant, and they all get their phones out and start clicking. No conversation.

    But back to the $1000 phone. It has apparently replaced the $1000 laptop, except its users use it more. My kids want cell-phones badly, and I understand that they are *required* for middle-schoolers and older. This is a terrible idea – it is a pure consumption platform, it is hard to do anything creative, type a document, create art, write code.

    FWIW I just bought a $60 BLU from Amazon. I have a hard time imagining what ten bucks more could give me that this does not have.

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