1.12 overall, 1.16 outside New York. I think I will wait until Tuesday, May 5 to do another 3DDRR update.
2 thoughts on “3DDRR update, May 1”
We must consider the possibility (pointed out by many other than me) that whatever level of “lockdown” is achieved, can be achieved, can be sustained, will NOT be enough to drive R0 below 1.
Worse, I conjecture that if you add up all the truly essential staff – food, water, power, sewage, healthcare, and the *full dependency graph* of everyone that is needed to support them, that you get simply too many people, too large a fraction of the population for “lockdown” to work very well.
A mostly subsistence farming society could do an awesome lockdown, us, not so much.
Those claiming “well China did it!” – miss a key strategic difference – they only had to deal with actual epidemic in one (very large) city. The rest of China could send support. That’s very different from locking down vast swaths of an entire country the size of the US.
Now that we appear to be in this indefinitely, should you be referencing 7DDR instead?
We must consider the possibility (pointed out by many other than me) that whatever level of “lockdown” is achieved, can be achieved, can be sustained, will NOT be enough to drive R0 below 1.
Worse, I conjecture that if you add up all the truly essential staff – food, water, power, sewage, healthcare, and the *full dependency graph* of everyone that is needed to support them, that you get simply too many people, too large a fraction of the population for “lockdown” to work very well.
A mostly subsistence farming society could do an awesome lockdown, us, not so much.
Those claiming “well China did it!” – miss a key strategic difference – they only had to deal with actual epidemic in one (very large) city. The rest of China could send support. That’s very different from locking down vast swaths of an entire country the size of the US.
Now that we appear to be in this indefinitely, should you be referencing 7DDR instead?