1.10 overall, 1.11 excluding New York. Tomorrow afternoon I will have comments.
3 thoughts on “3DDRR update, April 27”
Not sure why, but we had a huge drop off in reported deaths yesterday. I know in NYC it was the lowest point we’ve had since March. That it was reflected in the ex-NYC stats leads me to believe it was nationwide.
Even accounting for the weekend effect, it’s a big drop off. Today’s numbers look to be similar, albeit a bit higher. Hopefully it’s a sign of things to come.
Will probably be wise to wait for tomorrow’s data- Tuesdays spike due to the weekend reporting effect.
However, it is odd that the deaths are dropping- confirmed cases have been more or less at around 30,000/day plateau for over 4 weeks now. This could be explained if the virus has been retreating in the general population for the last two weeks (the effect Arnold is looking for in the 3DDRR stat), and we are just testing more people overall and finding smaller ratios of positives, but still 30,000/day. However, the data I have seen shows the positive ratio has been right around 20% for over most of that entire month- it is just in the last 5 days dropped down to 12% or so, but that coincided with a sudden jump in testing last week where we averaged 240,000/day until today when it dropped back to 135,000 and we jumped back up to 17%. I think the data does suggest that the virus in the general population is abating, and it might have abated enough starting 2-3 weeks ago that we are now seeing the effect on deaths falling. Fingers crossed.
The other explanation could be that we have found better treatment protocols over the last 3 weeks. Just now I tried to find graphs of ventilator use, and couldn’t find any, which just pisses me off as a scientist. This sort of data needs to be collected and made public.
Not sure why, but we had a huge drop off in reported deaths yesterday. I know in NYC it was the lowest point we’ve had since March. That it was reflected in the ex-NYC stats leads me to believe it was nationwide.
Even accounting for the weekend effect, it’s a big drop off. Today’s numbers look to be similar, albeit a bit higher. Hopefully it’s a sign of things to come.
Will probably be wise to wait for tomorrow’s data- Tuesdays spike due to the weekend reporting effect.
However, it is odd that the deaths are dropping- confirmed cases have been more or less at around 30,000/day plateau for over 4 weeks now. This could be explained if the virus has been retreating in the general population for the last two weeks (the effect Arnold is looking for in the 3DDRR stat), and we are just testing more people overall and finding smaller ratios of positives, but still 30,000/day. However, the data I have seen shows the positive ratio has been right around 20% for over most of that entire month- it is just in the last 5 days dropped down to 12% or so, but that coincided with a sudden jump in testing last week where we averaged 240,000/day until today when it dropped back to 135,000 and we jumped back up to 17%. I think the data does suggest that the virus in the general population is abating, and it might have abated enough starting 2-3 weeks ago that we are now seeing the effect on deaths falling. Fingers crossed.
The other explanation could be that we have found better treatment protocols over the last 3 weeks. Just now I tried to find graphs of ventilator use, and couldn’t find any, which just pisses me off as a scientist. This sort of data needs to be collected and made public.
A courtesy,,,you are mentioned…https://youtu.be/hPNForPYqQo