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	<title>Comments on: Guns and incarceration</title>
	<atom:link href="https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/</link>
	<description>taking the most charitable view of those who disagree</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 21 Dec 2020 16:49:20 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: MattW</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496341</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MattW]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2020 06:27:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496341</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I really hate it when people talk about US crime and gun stats because we don&#039;t have one nation of statistics here.  The CDC did extensive work on this and compiled it here: https://wisqars.cdc.gov:8443/nvdrs/nvdrsDisplay.jsp

In 2014 for example (before the BLM-era homicide increase) for the states they studied the total homicide rate (all causes) per 100k
Non-hispanic white americans: 2.03
Hispanic: 2.94
Black: 15.98

2014, gun-homicide only, per 100k
Non-hispanic white: 1.10
Hispanic: 1.92
Black: 12.69

So yes, white america has a higher homicide rate than europe, but the reason the numbers look so high is because &quot;American&quot; includes these different sub-populations that don&#039;t belong together. The same thing comes out in suicide rates.

Non-h white: 16.23
Hispanic: 5.05
Black: 5.22

People who are anti-gun mix-and-match these stats to try and get their way. They do this when they talk about how immigrants have a lower crime rate than native born americans, they do this when they talk about &quot;gun-deaths&quot; pretending that suicide and homicide are all the same thing.  

Black america has a homicide problem, white america has a suicide problem.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I really hate it when people talk about US crime and gun stats because we don&#8217;t have one nation of statistics here.  The CDC did extensive work on this and compiled it here: <a href="https://wisqars.cdc.gov:8443/nvdrs/nvdrsDisplay.jsp" rel="nofollow">https://wisqars.cdc.gov:8443/nvdrs/nvdrsDisplay.jsp</a></p>
<p>In 2014 for example (before the BLM-era homicide increase) for the states they studied the total homicide rate (all causes) per 100k<br />
Non-hispanic white americans: 2.03<br />
Hispanic: 2.94<br />
Black: 15.98</p>
<p>2014, gun-homicide only, per 100k<br />
Non-hispanic white: 1.10<br />
Hispanic: 1.92<br />
Black: 12.69</p>
<p>So yes, white america has a higher homicide rate than europe, but the reason the numbers look so high is because &#8220;American&#8221; includes these different sub-populations that don&#8217;t belong together. The same thing comes out in suicide rates.</p>
<p>Non-h white: 16.23<br />
Hispanic: 5.05<br />
Black: 5.22</p>
<p>People who are anti-gun mix-and-match these stats to try and get their way. They do this when they talk about how immigrants have a lower crime rate than native born americans, they do this when they talk about &#8220;gun-deaths&#8221; pretending that suicide and homicide are all the same thing.  </p>
<p>Black america has a homicide problem, white america has a suicide problem.</p>
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		<title>By: BC</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496329</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2020 02:26:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496329</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The correlation between gun ownership and gun crimes actually poses no trouble for conservatives because the causality is ambiguous.  Of course, in places with a lot of armed criminals committing crimes, we might expect law abiding people to find it more necessary to carry guns themselves.  One could easily rewrite the first sentence, replacing a single word: &quot;Western Europe, Canada and Australia have far fewer guns [**but**], compared with the United States, far fewer crimes committed with firearms.&quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The correlation between gun ownership and gun crimes actually poses no trouble for conservatives because the causality is ambiguous.  Of course, in places with a lot of armed criminals committing crimes, we might expect law abiding people to find it more necessary to carry guns themselves.  One could easily rewrite the first sentence, replacing a single word: &#8220;Western Europe, Canada and Australia have far fewer guns [**but**], compared with the United States, far fewer crimes committed with firearms.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Jay</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496312</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jay]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 22:05:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496312</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in the &#039;80s we had lighter sentencing and also much more crime.  Stricter sentencing was a deliberate policy aimed at getting crime under control.  It was substantially successful.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in the &#8217;80s we had lighter sentencing and also much more crime.  Stricter sentencing was a deliberate policy aimed at getting crime under control.  It was substantially successful.</p>
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		<title>By: Gary Jones</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496307</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Jones]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 20:46:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496307</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Do you honestly think that absent guns there would be EU levels of homicide in the US?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do you honestly think that absent guns there would be EU levels of homicide in the US?</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Z</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496306</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Z]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 20:33:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496306</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m not sure how you think those numbers warrant that conclusion. If the US had, say, 5x as many gun homicides and 5x as many non-gun homicides, you might say it&#039;s clearly not a gun issue; if we had the same number of homicides over all, but a much higher fraction are gun homicides, we might conclude that Americans just used guns instead of other methods, and that it&#039;s therefore not a gun issue.

What these numbers say: the US has almost as many non-gun homicides as Europe, and then has &gt;5x as many gun homicides as Europe, and the magnitude of the latter difference is much higher than the former. That would suggest that most gun homicides in the US are not merely &#039;substituting&#039; guns for other methods. So no, these numbers do not, a priori, suggest that guns aren&#039;t a factor.

Maybe some other factor drives up homicides in the US, and absent guns people would just as easily commit homicides as with guns, but that&#039;s not specifically suggested by the numbers cited.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not sure how you think those numbers warrant that conclusion. If the US had, say, 5x as many gun homicides and 5x as many non-gun homicides, you might say it&#8217;s clearly not a gun issue; if we had the same number of homicides over all, but a much higher fraction are gun homicides, we might conclude that Americans just used guns instead of other methods, and that it&#8217;s therefore not a gun issue.</p>
<p>What these numbers say: the US has almost as many non-gun homicides as Europe, and then has &gt;5x as many gun homicides as Europe, and the magnitude of the latter difference is much higher than the former. That would suggest that most gun homicides in the US are not merely &#8216;substituting&#8217; guns for other methods. So no, these numbers do not, a priori, suggest that guns aren&#8217;t a factor.</p>
<p>Maybe some other factor drives up homicides in the US, and absent guns people would just as easily commit homicides as with guns, but that&#8217;s not specifically suggested by the numbers cited.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Z</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496305</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Z]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 20:07:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496305</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The fraction of incarcerated people who are there for homicide is very small, so I’m not sure I buy the idea of a direct relationship between homicide rate and incarceration rate by country. I suspect that in the US, because we have see more homicides, we’re more willing to tolerate harsher criminal justice system in general. But if the US justice system were more lenient in respects unrelated to violent crime, would we really see more violent crime?

The indirect causal link one might make is that drug dealers and burglars are much more likely to commit murder at some point than the average person, and so incarceration for non-homicides still greatly reduces homicide rates. This theory dovetails well with the ‘security hypothesis’ for explaining the 1990s drop in crime rates, but less so with Canada’s similar drop in crime without an increase in incarceration.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The fraction of incarcerated people who are there for homicide is very small, so I’m not sure I buy the idea of a direct relationship between homicide rate and incarceration rate by country. I suspect that in the US, because we have see more homicides, we’re more willing to tolerate harsher criminal justice system in general. But if the US justice system were more lenient in respects unrelated to violent crime, would we really see more violent crime?</p>
<p>The indirect causal link one might make is that drug dealers and burglars are much more likely to commit murder at some point than the average person, and so incarceration for non-homicides still greatly reduces homicide rates. This theory dovetails well with the ‘security hypothesis’ for explaining the 1990s drop in crime rates, but less so with Canada’s similar drop in crime without an increase in incarceration.</p>
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		<title>By: Gary Jones</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496303</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary Jones]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 19:58:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496303</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;1,500 gun homicides per year in all of Europe, around 20 percent of total homicides. For a comparable period there were nearly 12,000 annual gun homicides in the United States, eight times as many as Europe, and guns were responsible for 67 percent of all killings.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This seems to say, roughly, that US non-gun homicides are almost as high as all EU homicides.

This isn&#039;t a gun issue, it&#039;s a homicide issue. The rest is stamp collecting.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>1,500 gun homicides per year in all of Europe, around 20 percent of total homicides. For a comparable period there were nearly 12,000 annual gun homicides in the United States, eight times as many as Europe, and guns were responsible for 67 percent of all killings.</p></blockquote>
<p>This seems to say, roughly, that US non-gun homicides are almost as high as all EU homicides.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t a gun issue, it&#8217;s a homicide issue. The rest is stamp collecting.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom G</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496287</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom G]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 17:25:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496287</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[+1
As most prosecutors will say, the vast majority of folks who plead guilty may not be guilty beyond reasonable doubt of the particular crime, but ARE guilty of &quot;crime&quot;, meaning other crimes they may not be charged for.

There&#039;s a lot more crime than trials or guilty pleas.  
&lt;I&gt;incarceration rates in America, while high relative to that in other countries, is not high relative to the dangers that the criminal population presents.  ...
many offenders go unpunished. This includes those who commit an estimated 3.3 million unreported offenses a year as well as thousands of reported crimes that the police never solve, including 86 percent of burglaries, 70 percent of robberies, and 67 percent of rapes.  &lt;/I&gt;

Lots of freedom, lots of crime; lots of punishment for crime, lots of prison time.
Even the freedom of the innocent to own guns gives more freedom to the criminals to use guns in crime.

This is a huge reason house prices, &quot;in good areas&quot; (low crime!), are so high.  Among other distortions.  

The racial differences seem to be non-discussed, and are probably out of bounds for any discussion because such a discussion would be called racist.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>+1<br />
As most prosecutors will say, the vast majority of folks who plead guilty may not be guilty beyond reasonable doubt of the particular crime, but ARE guilty of &#8220;crime&#8221;, meaning other crimes they may not be charged for.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a lot more crime than trials or guilty pleas.<br />
<i>incarceration rates in America, while high relative to that in other countries, is not high relative to the dangers that the criminal population presents.  &#8230;<br />
many offenders go unpunished. This includes those who commit an estimated 3.3 million unreported offenses a year as well as thousands of reported crimes that the police never solve, including 86 percent of burglaries, 70 percent of robberies, and 67 percent of rapes.  </i></p>
<p>Lots of freedom, lots of crime; lots of punishment for crime, lots of prison time.<br />
Even the freedom of the innocent to own guns gives more freedom to the criminals to use guns in crime.</p>
<p>This is a huge reason house prices, &#8220;in good areas&#8221; (low crime!), are so high.  Among other distortions.  </p>
<p>The racial differences seem to be non-discussed, and are probably out of bounds for any discussion because such a discussion would be called racist.</p>
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		<title>By: asdf</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496269</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[asdf]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 15:03:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496269</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t have a lot of great numbers on self defense use of guns.  I know the oft used phrase &quot;your more likely to hurt yourself with a gun than defend against an intruder.&quot;  I&#039;ve never lived in an area where I thought owning a handgun for self defense would be necessary.

When I think of using handguns for self defense I think of George Zimmerman.  Even when you succeed, you still lose.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t have a lot of great numbers on self defense use of guns.  I know the oft used phrase &#8220;your more likely to hurt yourself with a gun than defend against an intruder.&#8221;  I&#8217;ve never lived in an area where I thought owning a handgun for self defense would be necessary.</p>
<p>When I think of using handguns for self defense I think of George Zimmerman.  Even when you succeed, you still lose.</p>
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		<title>By: ColoComment</title>
		<link>https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/guns-and-incarceration/#comment-496268</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ColoComment]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 14:54:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=12738#comment-496268</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I said &quot;primarily for self-defense&quot; because range shooting is a fun fun pastime - much more fun than, say, playing golf or shuffleboard!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I said &#8220;primarily for self-defense&#8221; because range shooting is a fun fun pastime &#8211; much more fun than, say, playing golf or shuffleboard!</p>
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