The Wireless Last Mile

According to the Washington Post, the FCC seems finally to be coming around to the idea that the spectrum ought to be used for digital communication. In 2002, I wrote about the issue for TCS Daily and for the Liberty Fund site. The latter essay began,

Imagine what the Internet might do for you if high-speed access were available anywhere and everywhere. You could access the Internet in all of the rooms of your house, or in your yard, or in your car, or on the beach, as easily as listening to the radio today. Imagine that this connectivity is at broadband speed, meaning equal to or better than the download speeds of cable or digital subscriber lines (DSL). Now, imagine something else—this pervasive, high-speed Internet access available for a small monthly fee—or even for free.

I believe we would have arrived at this much faster had there been no FCC.

The Three-Axis Model and Coalitions

From a reader:

Does the three axis model help understand coalitions?…Are coalitions a kind of exchange where people accept each other’s position on the model?

My first thought is that coalitions are more likely to form on particular issues, with each group in the coalition using its preferred heuristic. This makes such coalitions fragile. For example, the biggest enthusiasts for the drug war probably were conservatives, who see drug abuse as barbaric. Progressives might side with conservatives to the extent that they views “pushers” as oppressors. However, as they grow to see imprisoned drug sellers more as oppressed than as oppressors, their support for the drug war weakens.

Does a coalition form because one group accepts another group’s model? I think this is less likely, and it is unlikely to last long. For example, perhaps immediately after 9/11, progressives accepted the civilization vs. barbarism narrative about terrorist groups. However, that has changed. Now, when a conservative uses the language of civilization vs. barbarism, he is likely to be labeled by progressives as an Islamophobe. Look at what happened to the film maker after the Benghazi incident.

I noticed that in the popular novel Kite Runner, the Taliban were portrayed as grown-up schoolyard bullies, which made it possible for progressives to process them by using the oppressed-oppressor narrative. Perhaps progressives favored the war in Afghanistan because they were persuaded to think of the Taliban as oppressors. President Bush attempted to make that case about Saddam Hussein in Iraq, but at that point progressives were not buying such a narrative. For that war, his coalition was smaller and quite fragile.

[I note in passing that Walter Russell Mead wrote last week,

Civilization is a hard won victory, and it must be constantly reclaimed in the face of barbarism.

He was talking about Mali.]

Concerning coalitions, I can imagine trying to include language in a bill that is intended to appeal to more than one dominant heuristic. For example, an immigration-reform measure could include language designed to emphasize border security and English as a national language in order to mollify conservatives that civilization is still valued.

Libertarians who try to get progressives on board with school choice are likely to emphasize it benefits for inner-city children, rather than talk up its benefits more broadly. I think that these attempts to frame issues in another group’s heuristic are more constructive than many other approaches for discussing politics. But these attempts will tend to fail nonetheless. As far as progressives are concerned, public education and teachers’ unions are automatically on the side of the oppressed, and that makes school choice a hard sell.

Our New Technocratic Masters

Ezra Klein welcomes them.

The progressive project of building a decent welfare state is giving way to the more technocratic work of financing and managing it. How government is run, more than what exactly it does, seems set to be the main battleground of American politics in coming years.

Joel Kotkin does not.

An even greater beneficiary of the second term will be the administrative class, who by their nature live largely outside the market system. This group, which I call the new clerisy, is based largely in academia and the federal bureaucracy, whose numbers and distinct privileges have grown throughout the past half century.

I have many concerns with the technocratic mindset. The one I wish to raise here is that the technocrat has no experience working in the context of an organization. To the technocrat, everything boils down to setting the right parameters and imposing the right rules. Implementation is taken for granted.

Within a business, someone with the technocratic mindset does not get very far. The people who get ahead are the people who can negotiate, build organizational capital, manage projects, and sell.

If you want to see how ineffective technocrats are, I give you as Exhibit A the attempts by the government to prevent foreclosures. The rules and the parameters looked good to the technocrats. The results in the real world were abysmal. That is because nobody had any idea what was involved in actually implementing these policies on the ground.

PSST–It’s Raghuram Rajan

He writes,

It is easy to see why a general stimulus to demand, such as a cut in payroll taxes, may be ineffective in restoring the economy to full employment. The general stimulus goes to everyone, not just the former borrowers. And everyone’s spending patterns differ – the older, wealthier household buys jewelry from Tiffany, rather than a car from General Motors. And even the former borrowers are unlikely to use their stimulus money to pay for more housing – they have soured on the dreams that housing held out.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen.

The question I pose is whether workers will return to old jobs or whether new jobs have to emerge. My belief is the latter.

Economists Don’t Believe in Liquidity Traps

The latest IGM forum poll of economic experts asks, in effect, whether Japan was in a liquidity trap. The statement given is

The persistent deflation in Japan since 1997 could have been avoided had the Bank of Japan followed different monetary policies.

The page does not load properly for me, due to a JavaScript error. But only Bob Hall disagrees, offering a liquidity trap argument. Apparently, none of the other economists polled is willing to argue for the liquidity trap.

Of course, I do not believe in the liquidity trap. Just watch. In the case of Japan, the central bank could have printed yen to buy dollars and other foreign currency, and I am confident that by doing so they could have produced inflation.

Thanks to Mark Thoma for the pointer.

Pre-School Education

Grover J. “Russ” Whitehurst writes,

I am concerned that preschool education has become like organic food — a creed in which adherents place faith based on selective consideration of evidence and without weighing costs against benefits. The result may be the overselling of generic preschool education as a societal good and a concomitant lack of attention to the differential impact of different types of preschool experience on different categories of children. So just as some but not all foods grown under some but not all organic conditions may be worth their price because of their extra nutritional benefits and lower environmental impacts, some but not all children exposed to some but not all preschool programs may experience lasting benefits. And because preschool education like organic food is expensive, it pays to know what works best, for whom, under what circumstances.

He proceeds to cite Head Start as an example of a program with high costs and negligible long-term benefits. See also Timothy Taylor.

In a follow-up post that discusses research into other programs, Whitehurst writes,

This thin empirical gruel will not satisfy policymakers who want to practice evidence-based education. Their only recourse if they have to act is to do so cautiously and with the awareness that they are going to make some mistakes and need to be in a position to learn from them. They and the general public need to be wary of the prevailing wisdom that almost any investment in enhancing access to preschool is worthwhile. Some programs work for some children under some conditions. But, ah me, which programs, children, and conditions?

Nicholas Kristof also talks about research into cost-effectiveness of anti-poverty programs. He wants to see taxpayers spend more money on the pre-school programs that have been shown to have success. But he does not want to spend any less on worthless programs. He even insists on hanging on to Head Start.

Ideas, Policy, Truth, and Rationalization

From Russ Roberts.

Keynes saw economics ideas influencing policy. But maybe it is policy that influences economics. So as the world becomes more interventionist, the economists respond by finding arguments that rationalize that policy. (I am sure I’m not the first person to suggest this. Feel free to share references in the comments.)

…Obviously, this is not the whole story. Keynes was right–good ideas are powerful. Economists aren’t just affected by public opinion, they affect it in turn. But I do think our profession (like journalists) have a view of ourselves that is quite romantic–we see ourselves as truth-seekers. Well, yes, there is an element of truth-seeking in what we do. But it’s not the only factor.

I believe it helps to think in terms of two uses for reasoning. There is motivated reasoning, which is aimed at rationalizing one’s own actions and those of one’s favored group. And there is constructive reasoning, which is aimed at seeking the truth. The existence of motivated reasoning is well established in the literature on psychology and political beliefs. The existence of constructive reasoning is something that I take on faith.

It is tempting to say that I engage solely in constructive reasoning, while other people engage in motivated reasoning. Of course, the odds that this is the case are not very high.

In fact, I think that in contemporary America we are highly tribal in our political beliefs. Think of my three-axis model. If you make an argument that rationalizes the views of those who share your ideology and puts down the views of those with a different ideology, you raise your status within your tribe. If you do the opposite, you lower your status within your tribe. So once you become embedded in a tribe, your reasoning tends more and more toward motivated reasoning.