Comments on: The Null Hypothesis Holds at the Macro Level http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-null-hypothesis-holds-at-the-macro-level/ taking the most charitable view of those who disagree Mon, 21 Dec 2020 11:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.32 By: Jeff http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-null-hypothesis-holds-at-the-macro-level/#comment-459126 Sat, 06 Jun 2015 23:49:32 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=5297#comment-459126 Presumably length of time at a given education level also matters. As an extreme example, if you magically went from baseline to 8.3 times smarter, you wouldn’t expect GDP to magically climb. It’s not merely being at the higher education level- it’s being at that level for long enough time to let it payoff.

But yea, I also suspect that the bigger issue is using length of schooling as a proxy for education. Far from an ideal metric.

]]> By: Andrew' http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-null-hypothesis-holds-at-the-macro-level/#comment-459116 Sat, 06 Jun 2015 13:41:27 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=5297#comment-459116 Education is an effect.

]]> By: one of the dudes http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-null-hypothesis-holds-at-the-macro-level/#comment-459114 Fri, 05 Jun 2015 19:09:28 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=5297#comment-459114 Those with 8.3 years of schooling enjoy greater relative bargaining power when surrounded by those with 2.8 years of schooling. If everyone is educated, you get (liberal arts) university grads pursuing waiter “careers”.

Not different from all economic endeavors — if you get lots of oil rigs, returns on oil rigs will fall.

Plus something about the middle income trap seems relevant (late comers don’t easily unseat incumbents in the innovation race)
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