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	<title>Comments on: Secular Stagnation?  Seriously?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/</link>
	<description>taking the most charitable view of those who disagree</description>
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		<title>By: one of the dudes</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-252909</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[one of the dudes]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Nov 2013 01:03:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-252909</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Agree and some further points:

1. Because (this is a subtel but hugely important point) of the word credit in the traditional sense of &quot;trust&quot;. There are multiple equilibria. One of them is a collapse in trust, the spiral of deleveraging and universal insolvency (in nominal money terms). QE pushes the system towards the other equilibrium.  

2. Real assets won&#039;t have infinite values. A hypothetical asset that produces infinite stream of real income would (assuming this income stream comes at a risk premium lower than the real rate is negative). But such assets don&#039;t exist. The Samuelson example of levelling the hill to make the railroad save energy that Bernanke cited is a good one -- what are the odds that this railroad transport service will be needed infinitely? Zero.

3. Other than data problems (growth came in health and education -- cost+ types of industries where the outcomes are not observable) there is also no functional link between real rate and economic growth. You can have all growth accrue to innovators, not savers.

4. Unclear how this relates to the &quot;negative rate&quot; idea.

5. That real rate to end borrowers staying positive is exactly the reason there hasn&#039;t been any real recovery.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agree and some further points:</p>
<p>1. Because (this is a subtel but hugely important point) of the word credit in the traditional sense of &#8220;trust&#8221;. There are multiple equilibria. One of them is a collapse in trust, the spiral of deleveraging and universal insolvency (in nominal money terms). QE pushes the system towards the other equilibrium.  </p>
<p>2. Real assets won&#8217;t have infinite values. A hypothetical asset that produces infinite stream of real income would (assuming this income stream comes at a risk premium lower than the real rate is negative). But such assets don&#8217;t exist. The Samuelson example of levelling the hill to make the railroad save energy that Bernanke cited is a good one &#8212; what are the odds that this railroad transport service will be needed infinitely? Zero.</p>
<p>3. Other than data problems (growth came in health and education &#8212; cost+ types of industries where the outcomes are not observable) there is also no functional link between real rate and economic growth. You can have all growth accrue to innovators, not savers.</p>
<p>4. Unclear how this relates to the &#8220;negative rate&#8221; idea.</p>
<p>5. That real rate to end borrowers staying positive is exactly the reason there hasn&#8217;t been any real recovery.</p>
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		<title>By: McGoorty</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-252116</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[McGoorty]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Nov 2013 17:39:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-252116</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[JP Koning, thank you very much, I will.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JP Koning, thank you very much, I will.</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: 8</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-251933</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[8]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Nov 2013 16:32:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-251933</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Without QE, interest rates on Treasury bonds would have gone negative yet still be positive. There is a lack of real savings in the system, so it is replaced with QE. The QE policy could be renamed &quot;Saving the Debts!&quot; The market would like to have extremely high real interest rates (via collapsing asset prices and negative GDP), the goal of QE is to get them as low as possible. Without QE, &quot;everyone&quot; would move into Treasuries and out of risk assets. With QE, they sell their Treasuries to the Fed and buy risk assets. Krugman et al want to turn up the volume on this policy.

Krugman derides the deflationists, he says the financial crisis is 4 years behind us, but his policy makes perfect sense to someone who thinks the financial crisis hasn&#039;t ended at all, but is merely being forestalled by QE. If they can get inflation high enough, the debts will become sustainable. 

Their main problem is that they can&#039;t print borrowers, and Uncle Sam is not an good investor.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Without QE, interest rates on Treasury bonds would have gone negative yet still be positive. There is a lack of real savings in the system, so it is replaced with QE. The QE policy could be renamed &#8220;Saving the Debts!&#8221; The market would like to have extremely high real interest rates (via collapsing asset prices and negative GDP), the goal of QE is to get them as low as possible. Without QE, &#8220;everyone&#8221; would move into Treasuries and out of risk assets. With QE, they sell their Treasuries to the Fed and buy risk assets. Krugman et al want to turn up the volume on this policy.</p>
<p>Krugman derides the deflationists, he says the financial crisis is 4 years behind us, but his policy makes perfect sense to someone who thinks the financial crisis hasn&#8217;t ended at all, but is merely being forestalled by QE. If they can get inflation high enough, the debts will become sustainable. </p>
<p>Their main problem is that they can&#8217;t print borrowers, and Uncle Sam is not an good investor.</p>
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		<title>By: Arnold Kling</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-251468</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arnold Kling]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Nov 2013 12:44:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-251468</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I disagree. From what I can tell, Samuelson had him exactly right.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I disagree. From what I can tell, Samuelson had him exactly right.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Greg Ransom</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-250812</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Ransom]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Nov 2013 06:30:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-250812</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Has there ever been anyone at MIT who ever understood Bohm-Bawerk?

No.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Has there ever been anyone at MIT who ever understood Bohm-Bawerk?</p>
<p>No.</p>
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		<title>By: Randy B</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-250004</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Randy B]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Nov 2013 22:10:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-250004</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re #1: I think IOER plays a large part on keeping a floor on short-end rates.  If short-end rates cannot go negative, then long-end rates (expected short rates over the term) have that floor.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re #1: I think IOER plays a large part on keeping a floor on short-end rates.  If short-end rates cannot go negative, then long-end rates (expected short rates over the term) have that floor.</p>
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		<title>By: Ray Lopez</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-249987</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ray Lopez]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Nov 2013 21:58:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-249987</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here are some rebuttals to the criticisms that come to mind.

1. We need QE to drive long-term rates to zero quicker than what would happen without intervention.    

2. There is no such thing as infinite value, so please readjust your model.   

3. It may be hard to reconcile, but it must be done.  Akin to point #2.   

4. Not inconsistent with the Krugman/Summers model:  everything is shifted a few percent down, so that the safest assets are in fact yielding negative return.   

5. The data is wrong.

6. Fair point.  I am that broader range.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are some rebuttals to the criticisms that come to mind.</p>
<p>1. We need QE to drive long-term rates to zero quicker than what would happen without intervention.    </p>
<p>2. There is no such thing as infinite value, so please readjust your model.   </p>
<p>3. It may be hard to reconcile, but it must be done.  Akin to point #2.   </p>
<p>4. Not inconsistent with the Krugman/Summers model:  everything is shifted a few percent down, so that the safest assets are in fact yielding negative return.   </p>
<p>5. The data is wrong.</p>
<p>6. Fair point.  I am that broader range.</p>
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		<title>By: JP Koning</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-249825</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JP Koning]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Nov 2013 19:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-249825</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[McGoorty, for number 2, try reading &lt;a href=&quot;http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2009/05/could-the-natural-rate-of-interest-really-be-negative.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; Nick Rowe post.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>McGoorty, for number 2, try reading <a href="http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2009/05/could-the-natural-rate-of-interest-really-be-negative.html" rel="nofollow">this</a> Nick Rowe post.</p>
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		<title>By: livingston</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-247882</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[livingston]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Nov 2013 19:58:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-247882</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;The prime rate at banks averaged 5 percent from 2001-2004, almost 7 percent from 2005-2008, and 3.25 percent from 2009-2012. Inflation over these periods averaged 2.3 percent, 3.4 percent, and 1.5 percent respectively, so that the real rate of interest has been positive throughout.&quot;

Ask anyone in banking, the prime rate has nothing to do with anything. A more relevant point may be that real rates for Investment Grade corporate bonds have been positive.

While that is true, they have been barely positive and much lower level on an absolute level. And that is after factoring in significant amount of credit risk.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The prime rate at banks averaged 5 percent from 2001-2004, almost 7 percent from 2005-2008, and 3.25 percent from 2009-2012. Inflation over these periods averaged 2.3 percent, 3.4 percent, and 1.5 percent respectively, so that the real rate of interest has been positive throughout.&#8221;</p>
<p>Ask anyone in banking, the prime rate has nothing to do with anything. A more relevant point may be that real rates for Investment Grade corporate bonds have been positive.</p>
<p>While that is true, they have been barely positive and much lower level on an absolute level. And that is after factoring in significant amount of credit risk.</p>
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		<title>By: McGoorty</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/secular-stagnation-seriously/#comment-247880</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[McGoorty]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Nov 2013 19:57:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=2270#comment-247880</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t really understand much of this.  Is there something I could read to help me understand specifically numbers 2 &amp; 3? Thanks]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t really understand much of this.  Is there something I could read to help me understand specifically numbers 2 &amp; 3? Thanks</p>
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