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	<title>Comments on: Opaque Leverage and Self-Deception</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/</link>
	<description>taking the most charitable view of those who disagree</description>
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		<title>By: Andrew'</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463253</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew']]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2016 19:56:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463253</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sure it is, relative to bureaucrats only getting more power and budget. 

And again, the main reason bankers didn&#039;t get more punishment is because the government doesn&#039;t want the issue looked into.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sure it is, relative to bureaucrats only getting more power and budget. </p>
<p>And again, the main reason bankers didn&#8217;t get more punishment is because the government doesn&#8217;t want the issue looked into.</p>
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		<title>By: Lord</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463249</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lord]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2016 17:15:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463249</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Not being able to make billions more because the merry go round stops isn&#039;t punishment.  Losing your job after collecting billions isn&#039;t.  Not materially.  Nor do I want punishment, but accountability.  Accountability is only for the lowly, like those who wouldn&#039;t play the game and lost out on the way up.  All we hear are excuses for accountability from them and their sycophants because they are too high to face any.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not being able to make billions more because the merry go round stops isn&#8217;t punishment.  Losing your job after collecting billions isn&#8217;t.  Not materially.  Nor do I want punishment, but accountability.  Accountability is only for the lowly, like those who wouldn&#8217;t play the game and lost out on the way up.  All we hear are excuses for accountability from them and their sycophants because they are too high to face any.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew'</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463245</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew']]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2016 13:43:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463245</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Try to come up with a list of bureaucrats who lost their jobs or lost income or went to prison.

The main reason the bankers weren&#039;t gone after even harder is to protect the bureaucrats.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Try to come up with a list of bureaucrats who lost their jobs or lost income or went to prison.</p>
<p>The main reason the bankers weren&#8217;t gone after even harder is to protect the bureaucrats.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom G</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463243</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom G]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2016 10:40:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463243</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Also, anybody and everybody who says &quot;nobody predicted it, nor could have predicted it&quot; are wrong, and intellectually dishonest.  Probably have NOT read a single CDO or structured finance contract in complete legally binding detail.  (They are SO boring, I can&#039;t get thru them).  

Especially Greenspan.  The rich tax-backed speculators did NOT want to even think about a crash, nor did the bank-captured regulators.

Scott Sumner claims that GNP growth from the 2006 peak of house prices to the 2008 bank crises proves the house price crash was not the key event.  I&#039;m certain he&#039;s wrong, but can&#039;t prove it.  The house price crash meant some 10-30% of US economic activity was &quot;malinvested&quot;, with slightly to hugely negative rates of return.

Burry&#039;s short selling of the financial products were picked up by newly risk conscious execs around 2007 as the house price increase gravy train turned into a train wreck.  It took all of 2007 and half of 2008 for the self-deceived lie believers to realize how much they were about to lose and how few their options were.  See 2007 bankruptcies: http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/58228/Insolvency+Bankruptcy/The+Year+In+Bankruptcy+2007+Part+1 

&gt;&gt;Laurels for the largest public bankruptcy filing in 2007 (and the ninth-biggest public bankruptcy filing of all time) went to subprime lender New Century Financial Corp., once the second-largest provider of home loans to high-risk borrowers in the U.S., which filed for chapter 11 protection in Delaware on April 2, 2007, listing more than $26 billion in assets. New Century wrote nearly $51.6 billion in mortgages in 2006 and once employed more than 7,200 people &lt;&lt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, anybody and everybody who says &#8220;nobody predicted it, nor could have predicted it&#8221; are wrong, and intellectually dishonest.  Probably have NOT read a single CDO or structured finance contract in complete legally binding detail.  (They are SO boring, I can&#8217;t get thru them).  </p>
<p>Especially Greenspan.  The rich tax-backed speculators did NOT want to even think about a crash, nor did the bank-captured regulators.</p>
<p>Scott Sumner claims that GNP growth from the 2006 peak of house prices to the 2008 bank crises proves the house price crash was not the key event.  I&#8217;m certain he&#8217;s wrong, but can&#8217;t prove it.  The house price crash meant some 10-30% of US economic activity was &#8220;malinvested&#8221;, with slightly to hugely negative rates of return.</p>
<p>Burry&#8217;s short selling of the financial products were picked up by newly risk conscious execs around 2007 as the house price increase gravy train turned into a train wreck.  It took all of 2007 and half of 2008 for the self-deceived lie believers to realize how much they were about to lose and how few their options were.  See 2007 bankruptcies: <a href="http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/58228/Insolvency+Bankruptcy/The+Year+In+Bankruptcy+2007+Part+1" rel="nofollow">http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/58228/Insolvency+Bankruptcy/The+Year+In+Bankruptcy+2007+Part+1</a> </p>
<p>&gt;&gt;Laurels for the largest public bankruptcy filing in 2007 (and the ninth-biggest public bankruptcy filing of all time) went to subprime lender New Century Financial Corp., once the second-largest provider of home loans to high-risk borrowers in the U.S., which filed for chapter 11 protection in Delaware on April 2, 2007, listing more than $26 billion in assets. New Century wrote nearly $51.6 billion in mortgages in 2006 and once employed more than 7,200 people &lt;&lt;</p>
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		<title>By: Tom G</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463242</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom G]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2016 10:20:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463242</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot; less intentional bad behavior on the part of financial executives than it was self-deception&quot;  &lt;&lt; in the cases of lying about income by home flippers &amp; buyers, and accepting these lies with a wink and nod, the acceptance of the buyers&#039; lies was intentional bad behavior.
The lying buyer assumed house prices would go up.  The &quot;lie believing&quot; mortgage provider also, and wrongly, assumed the same.  And the executives were intentionally believing the liars, and getting bonuses based on fees and deals, where this dishonesty was being rewarded.

The rich executives knew it was wrong, they were deliberate, they were only deceiving themselves about how hard the market might punish them -- they thought, not very much.  

They should have all gone bankrupt, but with emergency Fed semi-nationalization power to a) wipe out all equity, b) fire all execs/ offering new &quot;median wage only&quot; jobs to the non-execs, c) force debt to new equity conversions so as to keep the firms operating in a limping along way -- and a lot of the most lucrative business goes to lower tier banks that had been less greedy/ risk accepting.

Meltdown at the top of finance, with a loosening of money at the Fed (both lower rates AND more money available for QE or helicopter drops or tax refunds or tax loans), would not have been worse for industry/ Main street than what did happen.  

The bailouts kept the rich rich despite their foolish support for dishonesty.

The book is great (haven&#039;t seen the movie), and Dr. Michael Burry has a good UCLA speech a few years ago:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dr-michael-big-short-burrys-brutal-hangover-inevitable-state-world-ucla-commencement-speech]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8221; less intentional bad behavior on the part of financial executives than it was self-deception&#8221;  &lt;&lt; in the cases of lying about income by home flippers &amp; buyers, and accepting these lies with a wink and nod, the acceptance of the buyers&#039; lies was intentional bad behavior.<br />
The lying buyer assumed house prices would go up.  The &quot;lie believing&quot; mortgage provider also, and wrongly, assumed the same.  And the executives were intentionally believing the liars, and getting bonuses based on fees and deals, where this dishonesty was being rewarded.</p>
<p>The rich executives knew it was wrong, they were deliberate, they were only deceiving themselves about how hard the market might punish them &#8212; they thought, not very much.  </p>
<p>They should have all gone bankrupt, but with emergency Fed semi-nationalization power to a) wipe out all equity, b) fire all execs/ offering new &quot;median wage only&quot; jobs to the non-execs, c) force debt to new equity conversions so as to keep the firms operating in a limping along way &#8212; and a lot of the most lucrative business goes to lower tier banks that had been less greedy/ risk accepting.</p>
<p>Meltdown at the top of finance, with a loosening of money at the Fed (both lower rates AND more money available for QE or helicopter drops or tax refunds or tax loans), would not have been worse for industry/ Main street than what did happen.  </p>
<p>The bailouts kept the rich rich despite their foolish support for dishonesty.</p>
<p>The book is great (haven&#039;t seen the movie), and Dr. Michael Burry has a good UCLA speech a few years ago:<br />
<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dr-michael-big-short-burrys-brutal-hangover-inevitable-state-world-ucla-commencement-speech" rel="nofollow">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dr-michael-big-short-burrys-brutal-hangover-inevitable-state-world-ucla-commencement-speech</a></p>
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		<title>By: Andrew'</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463240</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew']]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jan 2016 05:42:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463240</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[They did get punished. Start with the regulators.  Only on government  is the failure rewarded and nobody gets fired- unless it&#039;s a scapegoat to protect a more senior failure.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They did get punished. Start with the regulators.  Only on government  is the failure rewarded and nobody gets fired- unless it&#8217;s a scapegoat to protect a more senior failure.</p>
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		<title>By: Lord</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463239</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lord]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2016 22:56:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463239</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recklessness may not be intentional, but it is still egregious.  What were they being paid for?  What were they supposed to know?  Why does failure have to be rewarded?  Is justice so much to ask?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recklessness may not be intentional, but it is still egregious.  What were they being paid for?  What were they supposed to know?  Why does failure have to be rewarded?  Is justice so much to ask?</p>
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		<title>By: Chris Blatchly</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463238</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Blatchly]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2016 22:33:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463238</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A very good point regarding self-deception.    In 2007 when things were already starting to unravel, Wachovia paid $25 billion for Golden West Financial (a specialist in sub prime mortgages) and then proceeded to loosen their credit standards!   Actions speak louder than words.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A very good point regarding self-deception.    In 2007 when things were already starting to unravel, Wachovia paid $25 billion for Golden West Financial (a specialist in sub prime mortgages) and then proceeded to loosen their credit standards!   Actions speak louder than words.</p>
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		<title>By: Francisco Capella</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463237</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Francisco Capella]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2016 19:27:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463237</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Structured investment vehicles were off balance sheet.
High leverage is not necessarily a problem if assets and liabilities are matched by risk and duration. The real financial problem is maturity and risk mismatch (and also of course risk misperception and mismanagement based on faulty statistical models).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Structured investment vehicles were off balance sheet.<br />
High leverage is not necessarily a problem if assets and liabilities are matched by risk and duration. The real financial problem is maturity and risk mismatch (and also of course risk misperception and mismanagement based on faulty statistical models).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Andrew'</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/opaque-leverage-and-self-deception/#comment-463234</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew']]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2016 18:47:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6299#comment-463234</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Liberals want to coddle people when times are good, conservatives want to punish people when times are bad. Some times they find common ground and we get the business cycle.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Liberals want to coddle people when times are good, conservatives want to punish people when times are bad. Some times they find common ground and we get the business cycle.</p>
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