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	<title>Comments on: Matt Ridley&#8217;s Explanation for Mass Shootings</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/</link>
	<description>taking the most charitable view of those who disagree</description>
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		<title>By: Andrew'</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462673</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew']]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Dec 2015 05:09:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462673</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What could possibly be the mechanism? 

France bans guns  They get massive massacre. They bomb the sh*t out of Syria. The obvious answer is legalizing ground marshals and a reasonable sidearm. 

We are here because of Obama and Hilary. 
Even GW Bush couldnt create something literally named Islamic State. Liberals don&#039;t want to ban guns. They want to have government employees control all of them. A good compromise is to certify a million civilian ground marshals. Before we had terrorist attacks we could pretend gun control would work. That horse left the barn.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What could possibly be the mechanism? </p>
<p>France bans guns  They get massive massacre. They bomb the sh*t out of Syria. The obvious answer is legalizing ground marshals and a reasonable sidearm. </p>
<p>We are here because of Obama and Hilary.<br />
Even GW Bush couldnt create something literally named Islamic State. Liberals don&#8217;t want to ban guns. They want to have government employees control all of them. A good compromise is to certify a million civilian ground marshals. Before we had terrorist attacks we could pretend gun control would work. That horse left the barn.</p>
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		<title>By: BC</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462664</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BC]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2015 23:46:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462664</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen later linked to this article on school shootings by Malcolm Gladwell [http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/10/19/thresholds-of-violence].  Many of the shooters in the article also had present fathers.  In some cases, the shooters killed their parents.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tyler Cowen later linked to this article on school shootings by Malcolm Gladwell [http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/10/19/thresholds-of-violence].  Many of the shooters in the article also had present fathers.  In some cases, the shooters killed their parents.</p>
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		<title>By: Handle</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462659</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Handle]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2015 19:44:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462659</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You know, guys do a &lt;i&gt;lot&lt;/i&gt; of crazy, show-off things in part so they can tell the story later.  That&#039;s because everyone loves a good storyteller with a dramatic personal tale.  Great personal stories appeal to both men and women - and that&#039;s hard to do.

They also do things like joint the military or become cops or join other socially exciting professions so they can maximize the odds that they will have some kind of exciting adventure, and that, entirely unprovoked, people will ask them to tell stories about those experiences later.  

Their brains are aware of the shared social salience, consciousness, awareness, and exposure to certain icons, symbols, and plot patterns, and so they are likely to mimic the scripts that they know get lots of fame and attention.

It seems to me that a lot of these incidents are kind of extreme-end-of-the-distribution cases what is a very ordinary phenomenon.

On the one hand, we need to know whether there is a pattern and profile to the kind of individuals most likely to manifest these tendencies in these extreme, violent ways.  What to do about those individuals, both natives and aspirational-immigrants, however, is an extremely hard question.

But if my guess is right, then just as troubling is the obviously enormous role of conventional, entertainment, and social media in broadcasting and repeating these incidents in the most sensational way possible, so that every bad apple &quot;knows that everybody knows&quot; about them, and that they are perfect fodder for instant fame, or infamy, as the case may be.  One can hope for some sense of responsibility and restraint, but the norm is unstable in practice since defectors stand to gain and there is no effective punitive mechanism to deter them.

I have not come across any good Libertarian suggestions for dealing with this very real problem.

However, it does raise the question of which liberty-reducing policy - gun control, immigration selectivity, and media censorship - might optimize liberty overall.

Cowen hinted that even more gun control was the right bet, since, if you believe his theory, an incidental benefit from a Libertarian perspective would be the reduction of support for American military interventionism abroad.  I can think of a lot of people who would really want something like that to be true, and it has the appeal of an air of sophistication, and so it would be a very seductive argument for them.  But it&#039;s too clever by half, and I think the purported result is pretty unlikely.  Also, if the bad apples can&#039;t get guns, they will just adapt to use other easy-to-make weapons like improvised bombs.

But of course one could make the same style of argument for immigration restriction, that, yes, it is a liberty-reducing policy, but that it would have the incidental benefit, from a Libertarian perspective, of preventing the electorate from changing in a direction of generating more support for socialist policies.

Notice that despite the symmetry, the former argument gets some fair consideration, because it&#039;s also something the progressives want, whereas the latter argument is dead in the water, because it&#039;s something they don&#039;t.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You know, guys do a <i>lot</i> of crazy, show-off things in part so they can tell the story later.  That&#8217;s because everyone loves a good storyteller with a dramatic personal tale.  Great personal stories appeal to both men and women &#8211; and that&#8217;s hard to do.</p>
<p>They also do things like joint the military or become cops or join other socially exciting professions so they can maximize the odds that they will have some kind of exciting adventure, and that, entirely unprovoked, people will ask them to tell stories about those experiences later.  </p>
<p>Their brains are aware of the shared social salience, consciousness, awareness, and exposure to certain icons, symbols, and plot patterns, and so they are likely to mimic the scripts that they know get lots of fame and attention.</p>
<p>It seems to me that a lot of these incidents are kind of extreme-end-of-the-distribution cases what is a very ordinary phenomenon.</p>
<p>On the one hand, we need to know whether there is a pattern and profile to the kind of individuals most likely to manifest these tendencies in these extreme, violent ways.  What to do about those individuals, both natives and aspirational-immigrants, however, is an extremely hard question.</p>
<p>But if my guess is right, then just as troubling is the obviously enormous role of conventional, entertainment, and social media in broadcasting and repeating these incidents in the most sensational way possible, so that every bad apple &#8220;knows that everybody knows&#8221; about them, and that they are perfect fodder for instant fame, or infamy, as the case may be.  One can hope for some sense of responsibility and restraint, but the norm is unstable in practice since defectors stand to gain and there is no effective punitive mechanism to deter them.</p>
<p>I have not come across any good Libertarian suggestions for dealing with this very real problem.</p>
<p>However, it does raise the question of which liberty-reducing policy &#8211; gun control, immigration selectivity, and media censorship &#8211; might optimize liberty overall.</p>
<p>Cowen hinted that even more gun control was the right bet, since, if you believe his theory, an incidental benefit from a Libertarian perspective would be the reduction of support for American military interventionism abroad.  I can think of a lot of people who would really want something like that to be true, and it has the appeal of an air of sophistication, and so it would be a very seductive argument for them.  But it&#8217;s too clever by half, and I think the purported result is pretty unlikely.  Also, if the bad apples can&#8217;t get guns, they will just adapt to use other easy-to-make weapons like improvised bombs.</p>
<p>But of course one could make the same style of argument for immigration restriction, that, yes, it is a liberty-reducing policy, but that it would have the incidental benefit, from a Libertarian perspective, of preventing the electorate from changing in a direction of generating more support for socialist policies.</p>
<p>Notice that despite the symmetry, the former argument gets some fair consideration, because it&#8217;s also something the progressives want, whereas the latter argument is dead in the water, because it&#8217;s something they don&#8217;t.</p>
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		<title>By: Andrew'</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462646</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew']]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2015 12:45:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462646</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While I don&#039;t believe I&#039;m prisoners are the main cause of the secular trend in crime, it wouldn&#039;t be anti-libertarian to say imprisoning too many people would reduce crime outside prison. It would be a hypothesis that petty crimes correlate to violent crimes.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While I don&#8217;t believe I&#8217;m prisoners are the main cause of the secular trend in crime, it wouldn&#8217;t be anti-libertarian to say imprisoning too many people would reduce crime outside prison. It would be a hypothesis that petty crimes correlate to violent crimes.</p>
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		<title>By: John G.</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462626</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John G.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2015 22:27:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462626</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Perhaps the decline in overall violence is due to high rates of incarceration? Not a very libertarian thing to say&quot;

A plausible explanation, but this account is inconsistent with state level data.  Some states (e.g. NY, NJ and CA) have reduced their prison populations (&gt;10%) over the last 15-20 years through various criminal justice reforms and sentencing measures and have still continued to see significant decreases in violent crimes and property crimes - the opposite of what you&#039;d expect if incarceration was the primary factor behind the decline.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Perhaps the decline in overall violence is due to high rates of incarceration? Not a very libertarian thing to say&#8221;</p>
<p>A plausible explanation, but this account is inconsistent with state level data.  Some states (e.g. NY, NJ and CA) have reduced their prison populations (&gt;10%) over the last 15-20 years through various criminal justice reforms and sentencing measures and have still continued to see significant decreases in violent crimes and property crimes &#8211; the opposite of what you&#8217;d expect if incarceration was the primary factor behind the decline.</p>
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		<title>By: Bryan Willman</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462624</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan Willman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2015 22:21:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462624</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Given that the CA shooters just had a baby, and the male held what appeared to be a respectable and stable job, and thus had good prospects for more babies, the &quot;poor desparate male who can&#039;t get reproduce&quot; theory seems to have a serious flaw.

Out with a bang, in High Glamour Style, regardless of reproductive prospects, seems more likely.

One wonders if say the NFL, motorsports, extreme sports, all serve a &quot;take a shot at some kind of glory&quot; role, and quiet that need to do &quot;something big&quot; that if left unresolved leads to serious misdrama?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Given that the CA shooters just had a baby, and the male held what appeared to be a respectable and stable job, and thus had good prospects for more babies, the &#8220;poor desparate male who can&#8217;t get reproduce&#8221; theory seems to have a serious flaw.</p>
<p>Out with a bang, in High Glamour Style, regardless of reproductive prospects, seems more likely.</p>
<p>One wonders if say the NFL, motorsports, extreme sports, all serve a &#8220;take a shot at some kind of glory&#8221; role, and quiet that need to do &#8220;something big&#8221; that if left unresolved leads to serious misdrama?</p>
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		<title>By: baconbacon</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462612</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[baconbacon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2015 20:21:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The changes in median age and violent crime rates don&#039;t seem to correlate particularly well other than both were in trends.  It does not look like a casual relationship from that data.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The changes in median age and violent crime rates don&#8217;t seem to correlate particularly well other than both were in trends.  It does not look like a casual relationship from that data.</p>
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		<title>By: Thomas</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462595</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Thomas]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2015 17:45:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462595</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Incarceration is a significant explanatory variable: http://politicsandprosperity.com/2014/11/11/crime-revisited/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Incarceration is a significant explanatory variable: <a href="http://politicsandprosperity.com/2014/11/11/crime-revisited/" rel="nofollow">http://politicsandprosperity.com/2014/11/11/crime-revisited/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Jim</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462594</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2015 17:38:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462594</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;The problem with this explanation, from Tyler’s point of view, is that it should point to an increase in violence of all sorts, not just mass shooting. But overall violence is down.&quot;

The decline is demographics.
The median age of the USA is on the rise. And the violent crime declined as the population aged. Violent crime is largely committed by males aged 16 to 25.

median age of US population:http://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/

violent crime per thousand:http://www.familyfacts.org/charts/830/violent-crime-has-declined

FBI statistics on age of violent crime offenders:
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/additional-ucr-publications/age_race_arrest93-01.pdf

Chart: US population distribution by age, 1900 through 2060:
http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-us-population-distribution-by-age-1900-through-2060/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The problem with this explanation, from Tyler’s point of view, is that it should point to an increase in violence of all sorts, not just mass shooting. But overall violence is down.&#8221;</p>
<p>The decline is demographics.<br />
The median age of the USA is on the rise. And the violent crime declined as the population aged. Violent crime is largely committed by males aged 16 to 25.</p>
<p>median age of US population:<a href="http://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/" rel="nofollow">http://www.statista.com/statistics/241494/median-age-of-the-us-population/</a></p>
<p>violent crime per thousand:<a href="http://www.familyfacts.org/charts/830/violent-crime-has-declined" rel="nofollow">http://www.familyfacts.org/charts/830/violent-crime-has-declined</a></p>
<p>FBI statistics on age of violent crime offenders:<br />
<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/additional-ucr-publications/age_race_arrest93-01.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/additional-ucr-publications/age_race_arrest93-01.pdf</a></p>
<p>Chart: US population distribution by age, 1900 through 2060:<br />
<a href="http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-us-population-distribution-by-age-1900-through-2060/" rel="nofollow">http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-us-population-distribution-by-age-1900-through-2060/</a></p>
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		<title>By: TR5749</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/matt-ridleys-explanation-for-mass-shootings/#comment-462593</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[TR5749]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2015 17:37:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=6221#comment-462593</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hmmm . . . I was going to link to Pinker&#039;s thesis that violence is going down both in the long and short terms. http://goo.gl/oItBoz

Both can be true, given your point 2 above.  Violence overall can be going down, but that makes the amoks stand out even more hence the greater focus we give them.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmmm . . . I was going to link to Pinker&#8217;s thesis that violence is going down both in the long and short terms. <a href="http://goo.gl/oItBoz" rel="nofollow">http://goo.gl/oItBoz</a></p>
<p>Both can be true, given your point 2 above.  Violence overall can be going down, but that makes the amoks stand out even more hence the greater focus we give them.</p>
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