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	<title>Comments on: From Cyclical Force to Rounding Error</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/from-cyclical-force-to-rounding-error/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/from-cyclical-force-to-rounding-error/</link>
	<description>taking the most charitable view of those who disagree</description>
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		<title>By: Lord</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/from-cyclical-force-to-rounding-error/#comment-96709</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lord]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Aug 2013 02:42:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=1635#comment-96709</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One twelfth of jobs being creating is a fairly sizable rounding error.  I would be somewhat surprised if there were many larger.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One twelfth of jobs being creating is a fairly sizable rounding error.  I would be somewhat surprised if there were many larger.</p>
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		<title>By: Ryan</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/from-cyclical-force-to-rounding-error/#comment-95826</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ryan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Aug 2013 19:44:01 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[To the list of changes that may affect the economy&#039;s response to cyclical policies, I would add:

- Decline in gross reallocative flows of jobs and workers (see &lt;a href=&quot;http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2230793&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Hyatt &amp; Spletzer&lt;/a&gt;); unless high flows in the past just meant that the economy is a Rube Goldberg machine, something strange has been happening.

- &lt;a href=&quot;http://updatedpriors.blogspot.com/2013/03/were-getting-old-and-fat.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Aging of the firm distribution&lt;/a&gt; due to a decline in firm entry rates, in addition to a &lt;a href=&quot;http://updatedpriors.blogspot.com/2013/07/business-dynamics-and-us-job-market-are.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;decline in activity from establishment entry&lt;/a&gt;.

- Changing geography of economic activity (e.g., &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.com/The-Geography-Jobs-Enrico-Moretti/dp/0544028058/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1375558739&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=the+new+geography+of+jobs&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Enrico Moretti&#039;s book&lt;/a&gt;, changes in the &lt;a href=&quot;http://updatedpriors.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-geography-of-startups-ii-cities.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;location of intense startup activity&lt;/a&gt;, etc.).

The separation between growth and cycle studies in academic macro has its uses, but it abstracts from the fact that &quot;growth&quot; is not the only long-term force in the US economy. Massive changes in the nature of the firm distribution and reallocation rates, in addition to the points you mention, suggest that those who wish to treat current problems as entirely cyclical should bear a heavy burden of proof.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To the list of changes that may affect the economy&#8217;s response to cyclical policies, I would add:</p>
<p>&#8211; Decline in gross reallocative flows of jobs and workers (see <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2230793" rel="nofollow">Hyatt &amp; Spletzer</a>); unless high flows in the past just meant that the economy is a Rube Goldberg machine, something strange has been happening.</p>
<p>&#8211; <a href="http://updatedpriors.blogspot.com/2013/03/were-getting-old-and-fat.html" rel="nofollow">Aging of the firm distribution</a> due to a decline in firm entry rates, in addition to a <a href="http://updatedpriors.blogspot.com/2013/07/business-dynamics-and-us-job-market-are.html" rel="nofollow">decline in activity from establishment entry</a>.</p>
<p>&#8211; Changing geography of economic activity (e.g., <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Geography-Jobs-Enrico-Moretti/dp/0544028058/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1375558739&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=the+new+geography+of+jobs" rel="nofollow">Enrico Moretti&#8217;s book</a>, changes in the <a href="http://updatedpriors.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-geography-of-startups-ii-cities.html" rel="nofollow">location of intense startup activity</a>, etc.).</p>
<p>The separation between growth and cycle studies in academic macro has its uses, but it abstracts from the fact that &#8220;growth&#8221; is not the only long-term force in the US economy. Massive changes in the nature of the firm distribution and reallocation rates, in addition to the points you mention, suggest that those who wish to treat current problems as entirely cyclical should bear a heavy burden of proof.</p>
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		<title>By: R Richard Schweitzer</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/from-cyclical-force-to-rounding-error/#comment-95790</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[R Richard Schweitzer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Aug 2013 17:01:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=1635#comment-95790</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen:

The share of American adults with jobs is stuck at just 58.7 percent. - See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/#sthash.hA5ZxIgz.dpuf]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tyler Cowen:</p>
<p>The share of American adults with jobs is stuck at just 58.7 percent. &#8211; See more at: <a href="http://marginalrevolution.com/#sthash.hA5ZxIgz.dpuf" rel="nofollow">http://marginalrevolution.com/#sthash.hA5ZxIgz.dpuf</a></p>
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		<title>By: R Richard Schweitzer</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/from-cyclical-force-to-rounding-error/#comment-95783</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[R Richard Schweitzer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Aug 2013 16:35:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=1635#comment-95783</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rounding Error significance or not, these stats should always, nowadays, ought not be interpreted alone.

Proportionate (or disproportionate) changes in wage payments need be noted.

Hours worked per worker?  Changes in agg. hours worked?  

We have begun to use participation as an adjusting factor, but it may actually have more significance to the social structure  than is yet accorded (France, Italy, Hungary, etc.)

What happens to social structures (as well as economies) when ever fewer people are the source for productive and distributive activities and more do nothing?
Is there some limit to non-participation; a tipping point? NBER Paper?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rounding Error significance or not, these stats should always, nowadays, ought not be interpreted alone.</p>
<p>Proportionate (or disproportionate) changes in wage payments need be noted.</p>
<p>Hours worked per worker?  Changes in agg. hours worked?  </p>
<p>We have begun to use participation as an adjusting factor, but it may actually have more significance to the social structure  than is yet accorded (France, Italy, Hungary, etc.)</p>
<p>What happens to social structures (as well as economies) when ever fewer people are the source for productive and distributive activities and more do nothing?<br />
Is there some limit to non-participation; a tipping point? NBER Paper?</p>
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		<title>By: Vacslav</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/from-cyclical-force-to-rounding-error/#comment-95708</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Vacslav]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Aug 2013 12:12:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=1635#comment-95708</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here&#039;s a good quote on macro from  - guess who:  

&quot;To say that net output to-day is greater, but the price-level lower, than ten years ago or one year ago, is a proposition of a similar character to the statement that Queen Victoria was a better queen but not a happier woman than Queen Elizabeth—a proposition not without meaning and not without interest, but unsuitable as material for the differential calculus. Our precision will be a mock precision if we try to use such partly vague and non-quantitative concepts as the basis of a quantitative analysis.&quot;

John Maynard Keynes, General Theory.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s a good quote on macro from  &#8211; guess who:  </p>
<p>&#8220;To say that net output to-day is greater, but the price-level lower, than ten years ago or one year ago, is a proposition of a similar character to the statement that Queen Victoria was a better queen but not a happier woman than Queen Elizabeth—a proposition not without meaning and not without interest, but unsuitable as material for the differential calculus. Our precision will be a mock precision if we try to use such partly vague and non-quantitative concepts as the basis of a quantitative analysis.&#8221;</p>
<p>John Maynard Keynes, General Theory.</p>
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