Comments on: Colin Woodard on the 2016 election

By: Matthew Young

Matthew Young — Sat, 10 Feb 2018 05:44:47 +0000

I thought that it was New York’s turn at the wheel. California got ruled out on account of nearly going bankrupt, twice. Texas would have had two turns out of three, breaks the rule. Actually Florida should get a shot next time.

The thing rotates on account the system cannot deal with the three large at one time. We have recessions at the switch points, we have a menu costs when we reorient the giant machine.

By: Lord

Lord — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 20:36:49 +0000

2020 should be open. I can’t see Trump winning after lying to everyone.

By: MikeW

MikeW — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 17:29:54 +0000

I read the post you linked to, and then the earlier one that claims that the urban-rural divide is not what’s important, but rather his “11 nations”. I did not think he made a convincing case for that. I would agree that he made a case for both being important factors, but not that his “nations” dominate over the urban-rural split. I continue to think that urban vs. non-urban is the big split in our politics.

By: collin

collin — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 17:29:36 +0000

Nice map but I would avoid 2018 Midterm gains as any real D gains for 2020. It is about ~8 D advantage and high D turnout will send pundits overstating changes. (A lot will depend on R Primaries and they really need to avoid Roy Moore talk radio types and campaign for more boring Handle.):

1) I don’t think Midland return D in 2018 in general although D will do a OK here in 2018.
2) El Norte will slowly grow at the expense of Far West and Texas. (Arizona, Southern Nevada, into Colorado) Far West will be changed Mormondom by 2020. The area is very Red but anti-Trump. (TBH El Norte is a terrible name here TBH.)
3) Yankeedom will solidy down to most of Virginia.

By: Tom DeMeo

Tom DeMeo — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 16:50:10 +0000

Given the recent post on winner cities… it may be worth looking at winner nations, and how long they will tolerate a disproportionately small voice in Federal politics.

By: EMichael

EMichael — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 15:00:48 +0000

I stopped reading when I read, “in rural areas that traditionally vote for the more community-minded candidate.”

Really? He gets to decide that?