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	<title>Comments on: Can Experts Be Trusted?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/</link>
	<description>taking the most charitable view of those who disagree</description>
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		<title>By: Arnold Kling</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-7237</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arnold Kling]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2013 13:30:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-7237</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How one feels about the NICE approach depends a lot on how much one trusts government experts to objectively value a medical procedure.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How one feels about the NICE approach depends a lot on how much one trusts government experts to objectively value a medical procedure.</p>
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		<title>By: Vacslav</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-7214</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Vacslav]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2013 12:34:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-7214</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Death panels in such or another form exist in every country where medical care is socialized. For example, in UK &quot;as a guideline rule, NICE accepts as cost effective those interventions with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than £20,000 per QALY&quot;.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Death panels in such or another form exist in every country where medical care is socialized. For example, in UK &#8220;as a guideline rule, NICE accepts as cost effective those interventions with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than £20,000 per QALY&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: JKB</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-7088</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JKB]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2013 05:15:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-7088</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The problem seems to be that so many cite the run of the mill expert opinion as an argument from authority.  I found the excerpt below from an old Freshman Rhetoric textbook (1919) on argumentation to be as good an explanation as any:


&quot;The argument from authority is the use of testimony from a witness of such eminence and unquestioned impartiality that his word carries conviction to all.&quot;

The above is almost never the &quot;authority&quot; being appealed to in discussions of maters but rather the ordinary &quot;expert&quot; witness, who do not merit the claim of &quot;authority&quot; and can be countered by other experts holding differing opinions.

&quot;Expert witnesses are good witnesses so long as they confine themselves to facts--provided they can be shown to be reasonably impartial; but when they begin to state opinions, such testimony proves nothing more than that the people who know the most about the subject disagree--which fact we knew already.  Little attention need be given in most arguments to testimony as to opinions without facts on which the opinions are based. &quot;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The problem seems to be that so many cite the run of the mill expert opinion as an argument from authority.  I found the excerpt below from an old Freshman Rhetoric textbook (1919) on argumentation to be as good an explanation as any:</p>
<p>&#8220;The argument from authority is the use of testimony from a witness of such eminence and unquestioned impartiality that his word carries conviction to all.&#8221;</p>
<p>The above is almost never the &#8220;authority&#8221; being appealed to in discussions of maters but rather the ordinary &#8220;expert&#8221; witness, who do not merit the claim of &#8220;authority&#8221; and can be countered by other experts holding differing opinions.</p>
<p>&#8220;Expert witnesses are good witnesses so long as they confine themselves to facts&#8211;provided they can be shown to be reasonably impartial; but when they begin to state opinions, such testimony proves nothing more than that the people who know the most about the subject disagree&#8211;which fact we knew already.  Little attention need be given in most arguments to testimony as to opinions without facts on which the opinions are based. &#8220;</p>
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		<title>By: sort_of_knowledgable</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-7084</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sort_of_knowledgable]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2013 04:50:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-7084</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well Palin was talking about more than near end of life &quot;The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama&#039;s ‘death panel&#039; so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,&#039; whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.&quot;    

In fact the Health care bill  &quot;gave incentives to doctors and hospitals for efficiency and improved care.&quot;  The incentives may not really lower costs as much as Democrats think, but when other countries have lower health care costs without &quot;death panels&#039;  it is reasonable to think there are some savings available.   

Also there was the characterization of payments for optional &quot;appointments for patients to discuss living wills, health care directives and other end-of-life issues&quot; as &quot;required counseling session that will tell them how to end their life sooner&quot; by another Republican.  

Even if there are not sufficient savings from ending insurance bureaucracy and other measures, &quot;saying no or later&quot; can start with quality of life services like knee replacements.   Then there is the question as to whether savings is even a necessary feature from the Democrat&#039;s point of view or merely nice to have.  In most cases Democrats are generally assumed to be more likely to want to raise taxes rather than cut services than Republicans.

So in short I would say that Palin&#039;s death panel description is misleading because she characterizes the health care bill as 
one that will set up a bureaucratic panel to decide if some one is &quot;productive&quot; enough to live when there is nothing like that in the bill even by wildly extrapolating possible indirect consequences of the bill.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well Palin was talking about more than near end of life &#8220;The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama&#8217;s ‘death panel&#8217; so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,&#8217; whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.&#8221;    </p>
<p>In fact the Health care bill  &#8220;gave incentives to doctors and hospitals for efficiency and improved care.&#8221;  The incentives may not really lower costs as much as Democrats think, but when other countries have lower health care costs without &#8220;death panels&#8217;  it is reasonable to think there are some savings available.   </p>
<p>Also there was the characterization of payments for optional &#8220;appointments for patients to discuss living wills, health care directives and other end-of-life issues&#8221; as &#8220;required counseling session that will tell them how to end their life sooner&#8221; by another Republican.  </p>
<p>Even if there are not sufficient savings from ending insurance bureaucracy and other measures, &#8220;saying no or later&#8221; can start with quality of life services like knee replacements.   Then there is the question as to whether savings is even a necessary feature from the Democrat&#8217;s point of view or merely nice to have.  In most cases Democrats are generally assumed to be more likely to want to raise taxes rather than cut services than Republicans.</p>
<p>So in short I would say that Palin&#8217;s death panel description is misleading because she characterizes the health care bill as<br />
one that will set up a bureaucratic panel to decide if some one is &#8220;productive&#8221; enough to live when there is nothing like that in the bill even by wildly extrapolating possible indirect consequences of the bill.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Sailer</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-7069</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve Sailer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2013 02:59:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-7069</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To my mind, the best solution is Hegel&#039;s Thesis-Antithesis-Synthesis process. People don&#039;t want to admit they were wrong, and seldom are they 100% wrong. So, encourage them to develop a more sophisticated view. 

For example, with minimum wage:

- Thesis: Minimum wage laws reduce employment.

- Antithesis: Card-Krueger study

- Synthesis: How high the minimum wage is matters. A $100 minimum wage would crush unemployment, but a $1 minimum wage would be irrelevant.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To my mind, the best solution is Hegel&#8217;s Thesis-Antithesis-Synthesis process. People don&#8217;t want to admit they were wrong, and seldom are they 100% wrong. So, encourage them to develop a more sophisticated view. </p>
<p>For example, with minimum wage:</p>
<p>&#8211; Thesis: Minimum wage laws reduce employment.</p>
<p>&#8211; Antithesis: Card-Krueger study</p>
<p>&#8211; Synthesis: How high the minimum wage is matters. A $100 minimum wage would crush unemployment, but a $1 minimum wage would be irrelevant.</p>
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		<title>By: Daublin</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-7000</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daublin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jan 2013 19:38:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-7000</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I know it&#039;s a side issue from the main point, but was is Palin&#039;s &quot;death panel&quot; description misleading in any way? It was similar to an argument I had already been raising privately, though under a less evocative name. (My phrasing was, &quot;ask who says no&quot; under any given system.)

From a little googling, I find this &quot;lie of the year&quot; article:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/dec/18/politifact-lie-year-death-panels/

However, I don&#039;t see where in it they point out Palin being inaccurate. All she points out is that the only realistic way for nationalized medical care to control costs is to sometimes say no. One category of saying no is patients that are likely near the end of their life. And who decides when this happens? A bureaucratic panel.

I would be very interested if anyone can say what I am missing. Not that I am a huge Palin fan, but I think she got this one right.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I know it&#8217;s a side issue from the main point, but was is Palin&#8217;s &#8220;death panel&#8221; description misleading in any way? It was similar to an argument I had already been raising privately, though under a less evocative name. (My phrasing was, &#8220;ask who says no&#8221; under any given system.)</p>
<p>From a little googling, I find this &#8220;lie of the year&#8221; article:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/dec/18/politifact-lie-year-death-panels/" rel="nofollow">http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/dec/18/politifact-lie-year-death-panels/</a></p>
<p>However, I don&#8217;t see where in it they point out Palin being inaccurate. All she points out is that the only realistic way for nationalized medical care to control costs is to sometimes say no. One category of saying no is patients that are likely near the end of their life. And who decides when this happens? A bureaucratic panel.</p>
<p>I would be very interested if anyone can say what I am missing. Not that I am a huge Palin fan, but I think she got this one right.</p>
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		<title>By: Philip</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-6918</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Philip]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jan 2013 15:47:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-6918</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Definitely good issues to think through.  But I think you&#039;re a little too breezy in step 2--are you equivocating on the meaning of &quot;partisan&quot; there?  Yes, as a matter of fact, political scientists and psychologists have shown that strong partisans (in the R or D sense) have strong filters for how they view the world; yes, at some level, it&#039;s probably fair to say that disinterested knowing is impossible.  I&#039;m not at all sure that it follows that &quot;the term &#039;nonpartisan expert&#039; is nearly an oxymoron,&quot; though.  Clearly some people have a much stronger partisan agenda (in the D-R sense) than others, and that some people (e.g., those with a financial stake in answering a question one way rather than another) are likely to be more &quot;partisan&quot; (in the not-at-all-disinterested sense of the word).  For those of us who resist being strongly partisan in either of these senses, &quot;nonpartisan expert&quot; is a totally coherent guiding light, even if it&#039;s probably not entirely attainable.  No doubt there are lots of Americans who would scoff at this, and think the aspiration to be mere pretension, but so much the worse for them.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Definitely good issues to think through.  But I think you&#8217;re a little too breezy in step 2&#8211;are you equivocating on the meaning of &#8220;partisan&#8221; there?  Yes, as a matter of fact, political scientists and psychologists have shown that strong partisans (in the R or D sense) have strong filters for how they view the world; yes, at some level, it&#8217;s probably fair to say that disinterested knowing is impossible.  I&#8217;m not at all sure that it follows that &#8220;the term &#8216;nonpartisan expert&#8217; is nearly an oxymoron,&#8221; though.  Clearly some people have a much stronger partisan agenda (in the D-R sense) than others, and that some people (e.g., those with a financial stake in answering a question one way rather than another) are likely to be more &#8220;partisan&#8221; (in the not-at-all-disinterested sense of the word).  For those of us who resist being strongly partisan in either of these senses, &#8220;nonpartisan expert&#8221; is a totally coherent guiding light, even if it&#8217;s probably not entirely attainable.  No doubt there are lots of Americans who would scoff at this, and think the aspiration to be mere pretension, but so much the worse for them.</p>
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		<title>By: ThomasL</title>
		<link>http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/can-experts-be-trusted/#comment-6913</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ThomasL]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jan 2013 15:26:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=412#comment-6913</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[(3) is a large part in my own dismissal of many news stories.  I have quite a quiver of reasons for dismissing news stories...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(3) is a large part in my own dismissal of many news stories.  I have quite a quiver of reasons for dismissing news stories&#8230;</p>
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