Book Discussions

If any readers are willing/able to organize a group interested in Specialization and Trade, I am willing/able to travel to talk with such a group. I think about 10-20 people would be a good size. I am particularly interested in speaking to autodidacts in their 20s and 30s.

There are several topics in the book which, in hindsight, could have been developed further. One of them that I have been thinking a lot about recently is the long shadow cast by World War II on economic thinking and policy. In the book, I do mention that all of the major nations fighting the war used central planning to a considerable extent. But other points are worth noting, including:

1. In Great Britain, major industries were nationalized from the post-war period all the way up to the late 1970s, when Margaret Thatcher took over as Prime Minister.

2. In the U.S., price controls were used during the war to fight inflation, and the belief in price controls died hard. If I recall correctly, many in the Truman Administration wanted to continue controls after the war, and they were disappointed when Congress abolished them. As late as the early 1970s, the Nixon Administration attempted to go the price-control route, with disastrous results.

3. Another challenge during the war and the post-war period was the potential for labor unions in key industries, such as steel and coal, to bring the economy to its knees. In the decades following the war, Presidents had to resolve major strikes by cajoling (or even forcing) industry and labor leaders to accept settlements. Finally in the 1980s, both Thatcher (coal miners) and President Reagan (air traffic controllers) won important confrontations with striking workers. Many on the left are still bitter about this. They long for the days when unions were more of a force.

4. Because the wartime economies were centrally planned, a lot of economic research involved developing tools for such planning. Prior to the war, the idea of representing an entire economy using mathematical symbols and equations to represent inputs and outputs was adapted from the Soviet Union by Wassily Leontief, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1973. After the war, MIT economists, notably Robert Solow (who had studied with Leontief at Harvard), thought that Leontief’s model of production was both too detailed and too rigid. They worked on solutions to the problem of optimizing output that involved linear programming, resulting in an important textbook on programming techniques by Joseph Dorfman (Harvard), Paul Samuelson, and Solow.

5. Also, the MIT economists developed and elaborated on the concept of an aggregate production function. This eliminates the detail by aggregating “capital” and “labor” inputs and treating the economy as a GDP factory. This generated an extensive, but now largely forgotten, literature, including the so-called Cambridge Capital Controversy.

6. The advantage of the aggregate production function is that there are mathematically tractable ways to represent substitution between capital and labor. The Constant Elasticity of Substitution production function, which includes Cobb-Douglas as a special case, was another topic that filled the journals of the early 1960s with now-forgotten articles. I recall that in the early 1970s one of my undergraduate professors, Bernie Saffran, pointed out to us that econometricians trying to estimate the CES production function were trying to tease second and third derivatives out of data where you could be lucky merely to find that the first derivative had the correct sign.

3 thoughts on “Book Discussions

  1. If you are coming to the UK at all, please can you mention it in your main blog and I’ll try to come along.

  2. In the case of Post-WW2, here are some thoughts:

    1) Yes, the war nations nearly nationalized commerce during the war and we have to remember there was a lot of concern of a huge Post War economic turmoil. I did take ~10 years to get to Father Knows Best Years. (We exaggerate this reality as well.)

    2) I think the most important policy by Truman after WW2 was that losing nations (W Germany & Japan) should not have huge reparations but be included in free trade agreements and thrive economically. (The impact of the Marshall Plan was more of ensuring Germany transitioned to the ‘West’ than the actual dollars.) The plan was really to counteract the coming Iron Curtain but It was effective policy. For a book this is not necessarily popular at the time but I believe this policy built a longer term peace and prosperity than anything else done in the 20th Century.

    3) The most interesting reality of Unions in the 1950s is the post-WW2 the US government passed Taft-Hartley to weaken their power and there was fair amount of anti-union movies made in the late 1940s. I assumed after WW2 there was a labor shortage due to war deaths in the developed world, early Depression Baby Bust, and an enforced job discrimination based around sex and race. (Throw in the Korea War in the mix as well) In reality, Job growth in the 1950 WAS NOT HIGH! and grew a lot more in the 1960s – 1980s. Unions power grew from low labor supply.

    4) Yes, Volcker helped with disflation but there are two other early-1980s realities: Oil Prices dropped a lot! and the Boomer/Women job growth was slowing down. Remember the average number of jobs during Carter created 3.6M/year was higher than Reagan 3.5M/year. (Also after Volcker 1983, globalization limits Fed impact.)

    5) I have always thought what killed US manufacturing unions was not Reagan but Japan Inc. back in the 1970 – 1990.

    6) Thinking about 1970s inflation, the more I have come to believe that it was caused by huge job growth but the workers unwillingness for lower wages. Real Wages for non-managerial workers was higher in 1974 than even today. (It actually decreased steadily from 1974 – 1994 and have headed slowly up since then. Makes the Ross Perot 1992 run make more sense.)

    7) I have come to think the US economy has ~25 years of growth and about 8 – 10 years of recessionary years. So I think of 1948 -1973 or 1983 – 2007 growth periods with small recession interruptions and the 1974 – 1982 or 2008 – 2015 as the recessionary years. (I simplified 1974 – 1982 was a just long recession.)

  3. If you setup a potential talk in Boston/Cambridge, there are always enough takers (and >=1 by this comment) — Spec&Trade reader

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