Comments on: 3DDRR update http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/3ddrr-update/ taking the most charitable view of those who disagree Mon, 21 Dec 2020 11:09:54 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.32 By: Cole http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/3ddrr-update/#comment-499540 Fri, 10 Apr 2020 16:43:04 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=13263#comment-499540 Arnold, the COVID Tracking site numbers change all the time. So I think that if Indiana updates its Monday deaths on Wednesday, the COVID Tracking site will add that data to its Monday total on Wednesday. So the Monday total on the COVID Tracking site will be different on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday.

]]> By: Matthew young http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/3ddrr-update/#comment-499502 Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:55:24 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=13263#comment-499502 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc.html

From Wednesday to Thursday, the number of hospitalizations increased by 200, to 18,279, or just 1 percent.
If the trend were to continue, the number of people in hospitals would soon start to decline — a sign that the virus had passed its apex.
But the number of people dying of the virus continues to grow. The state recorded 799 deaths from Wednesday to Thursday, another one-day high.
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Cops and docs are interfering with the spread rate.
The other alternative is that the spread rate remains and most of NYC has the virus. I dunno which.

]]> By: Matthew young http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/3ddrr-update/#comment-499478 Fri, 10 Apr 2020 04:11:31 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=13263#comment-499478 Just for interest. There is a wide discussion about whether I am correct, and when do the deaths becomes a bound, uniform random variable. A recent proof on the subject, proving the negative for some cases, has been published and is evidently a ground breaking proof.

The proof goes directly to the issue of finding patterns of sustainable specialties. 170 page proof that is rapidly become a textbook for mathematicians.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-grapple-with-sudden-answer-to-connes-embedding-conjecture-20200408/

Written in terms of a value added chain, as a matter of fact. Can a value added chain increase its layering and see a reduction in inventory volatility? This proof will lead to a criteria, mainly the depreciation cycles of the intermediate products. Can all their depreciation cycles be aligned?

]]> By: Benjamin Cole http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/3ddrr-update/#comment-499464 Thu, 09 Apr 2020 23:55:13 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=13263#comment-499464 Given the study cited yesterday by the Harvard-MIT guys, Stock et al, why does one believe anything about R rates?

]]> By: Matthew young http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/3ddrr-update/#comment-499456 Thu, 09 Apr 2020 23:12:14 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=13263#comment-499456 And we know when we hit equilibrium because the deaths will not lag. We will be able to measure them as a constant random flow with some bounded accuracy.

]]> By: Yancey Ward http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/3ddrr-update/#comment-499447 Thu, 09 Apr 2020 22:33:51 +0000 http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?p=13263#comment-499447 Use a 7 day moving average.

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